Cereal production, undernourishment, and food insecurity in South Asia

• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12659
• Date: 01 May 2020
• Published date: 01 May 2020
• Author: Mazhar Mughal,Charlotte Fontan Sers

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wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rode Rev Dev Econ. 2020;24:524–545.

© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

DOI: 10.1111/rode.12659

REGULAR ARTICLE

Cereal production, undernourishment, and food

insecurity in South Asia

MazharMughal

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CharlotteFontan Sers

Pau Business School, Rue Saint John Perse,

64 000 PAU, Pau, France

Correspondance

Mazhar Mughal, Pau Business School, Rue

Saint John Perse, 64 000 PAU, France.

Email: mazhar.mughal@esc-pau.fr

Abstract

South Asia remains one of the major strongholds of hun-

ger in the world, despite the fact that, following the Green

Revolution, cereal production in the countries of this region

tripled during the second half of the 20th century. This study

examines the role played by this increase in cereal produc-

tion in improving the region’s nutrition and food security

situation. We study the association between the different

aspects of food security and cereal production in South Asia

that have prevailed over the past 25 years. We find a benefi-

cial role of the production and yield of cereals in lowering

the extent of undernourishment. A 1% increase in cereal pro-

duction and yield is associated with up to 0.84% decrease in

the prevalence of undernourishment. The impact is signifi-

cant over a period of 3 years. The positive effect is particu-

larly evident in the case of rice and maize production. An

improvement is seen in the aspects of availability, stability,

and utilization of food security but not in the aspect of ac-

cess. These findings are robust to alternative specifications

and techniques. The results explain, in part, the means by

which South Asian nations have managed to stall relative

increases in extreme hunger and food insecurity.

KEYWORDS

cereal production, food security, South Asia, undernourishment

JEL CLASSIFICATION

O11; O13; 053; Q18

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MUGHAL And FOnTAn SERS

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INTRODUCTION

In November 2019, the government of Pakistan decided to immediately release an additional sum of

Rs. 6 billion (about US$38 million) to Utility Stores Corporation, the state-run grocery outlet.1

The

step was taken to provide subsidized food items for the poor households suffering from a seasonal

spike in cereal and vegetable prices.

Combatting food insecurity has long been a major concern of governments across South Asia.

Poverty alleviation measures include delivery of subsidized cereals through public distribution sys-

tems (as mentioned earlier), food stamps, midday meals for school children, food for work programs,

and provision of nutritional supplements to mothers and children. During the past 25 years measures

such as these have helped reduce the proportion of malnourished and food insecure populations in all

eight countries of the region (FAO, 2016). The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing

poverty by half was also achieved in time (IFPRI, 2016). The proportion of undernourished in South

Asia's total population fell significantly from 23.9% in the early 1990s to 14.9% for the 2016–2018

period (Table 1). While the prevalence has fallen in all the eight countries, the reduction has been most

spectacular in Bangladesh and Nepal: in the former, the proportion of undernourished in the country’s

population halved from 32.8% estimated in 1990–1992 to 14.7% in 2016–2018, while the decrease was

even greater in the latter, from 22.8% to 8.7% of the population during the same period. Nevertheless

and despite this progress in relative terms, about 278.5 million inhabitants of the region (corresponding

to 14.7% of the population) are still estimated as being unable to meet their dietary needs (FAO, IFAD,

UNICEF, WFP, and WHO, 2019). India, the largest and most populous country in the region, alone,

accounts for a quarter of the world’s total food insecure population. One Indian in seven (194 million or

14.5%) remains food insecure, and one in three children under 5 years of age manifests stunted growth.

A major objective of food security policies of the South Asian governments over the years has been

to achieve self-sufficiency in staple grains, mainly rice, wheat, and maize (Pingali, 2004). Cereals ac-

count for one-half to three-quarters of average caloric intake in these countries (Figure 1). Throughout

the past half-century, considerable effort was made across the region to attain self-sufficiency in

cereal production. Agricultural research centers focused on producing new high-yield varieties better

suited to South Asia's soils and climate. Subsidies were provided on agricultural inputs, including

seeds, fertilizers, machinery, irrigation, and electricity for tube wells. Small farmers were provided

with cash benefits and subsidized credit. Efforts were made to improve access to agricultural credit

and to reduce its cost (FAO, 2014). Programs for agricultural insurance in case of natural and climatic

TABLE 1 Undernourishment Trends in South Asia

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Number of Undernourished Undernourishment Prevalence(%)

1990–1992 2016–2018 1990–1992 2016–2018

South Asia 291.2 277.7 23.90 14.90

Afghanistan 3.8 10.6 29.50 29.80

Bangladesh 36 24.2 32.80 14.70

India 210.1 194.4 23.70 14.50

Maldives <0.1 <0.1 12.20 10.30

Nepal 4.2 2.5 22.80 8.70

Pakistan 28.7 40 25.10 20,3

Sri Lanka 5.4 1.9 9 22

Source: FAOSTAT (2019).