Cassandra's conundrum.

• Author: Cirincione, Joseph
• Position: Apocalypse When? - Essay

FIRST, LET me agree with one of John Mueller's main points: The dangers to our national security are very often hyped, and this alarmism produces undesirable consequences. And it is not just venal politicians and ideologues who participate in this threat exaggeration, but otherwise well-intentioned reporters and, yes, experts. This was pointed out to me not by a journalist, but by a man who pretends to be a journalist: Jon Stewart. Interviewing me on his Daily Show shortly after the hyped-up scare of Jose Padilla's alleged "dirty bomb" plot in 2002, he asked about my role in the media coverage. "For a guy like you", he said, "is this like when you see the weatherman and a hurricane is coming, and the weatherman never really gets to be at the top of the news, but in a hurricane, he is. And he's got his big rain slicker on and saying, 'It's a devastating event!'"

He was right. That is exactly what it is like for dozens of experts put in front of the cameras and microphones and asked to play their role in the frenzy of "Crisis with Iran", "Showdown with Iraq", "America in the Crosshairs" or whatever title, music and drama can convince the viewer not to flip the channel. We try to give just the facts, but it is hard not to get caught up in the moment or to provide a sound bite that will be used absent any qualifiers. Couple this media tendency with an administration's inherent dominance and ability to frame any national-security debate, and Mueller is right to be very worried about the use of fear to manipulate even the informed public.

In the prelude to the Iraq War, we saw a considerable amount of threat-mongering. Now, some of the same people who claimed we had to invade that nation or risk nuclear weapons in the hands of an Iraqi dictator are trying to convince us that we must continue to occupy that nation or risk nuclear weapons in the hands of Iranian dictators. As Mueller points out, some want to go further, attacking Iran directly. His arguments about the futility of a military answer to the Iranian program are on point, particularly the negative lessons of Osirak.

Just Because You're Paranoid....

MUELLER GOES too far, however. His major thesis--"the obsessive quest to control nuclear proliferation ... has been substantially counterproductive and has often inflicted dire costs"--is not correct. I wish it were true that we had an "obsessive quest." I wish we truly did make the number one threat to our national security our number one...