Cascade County: opportunities and challenges.

• Author: Barkey, Patrick M.
• Position: Statistical data

The good news for Great Falls and Cascade County is that the recession of 2008-09 was kinder and gentler to the local economy than in almost any other part of the state. The bad news is that as we turn toward year 2013, that relatively benign outcome is becoming less and less relevant. Trends in the energy and agriculture sectors, and its geographic position on the U.S.-Canada trade corridor, give Cascade County economy unique opportunities for growth. But likewise, the economy's dependence on the Malmstrom Air Force Base and other military activities poses a unique risk to growth as the future of those facilities comes into question.

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Our expectation for the near-term is that the economy will continue to see modest growth, with stronger gains in agriculture-related businesses and light manufacturing offset in part by government declines. Growth should improve to around 2.0 percent in inflation-adjusted nonfarm earnings, picking up slightly by the decade's midpoint.

The data available suggest that 2012 was largely a sideways year for the Cascade County economy. Civilian wage growth was virtually flat during the 12-month period ending at midyear, with gains in trade and accommodations offset by small declines in administrative, professional, and government jobs (Figure 3). Inflation-adjusted wages and salaries increased by just $1.4 million over this same time period, the smallest gain of any of Montana's larger cities.

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The trends in military and civilian totals in Cascade County have been distinctly different, as shown in Figure 4. As measured by employment, the military's economic footprint in the county has declined in two distinct steps since 1990 - a 25 percent decline in the mid-1990s, and a 15 percent decline between the years 2004-09. Despite a rebound since 2009 and the rather optimistic forecast shown in the figure (from IHS Global Insight, a national forecasting firm), the prospect of further declines can't be dismissed.

Much more encouraging have been several...