Cascade County: good news verified in latest preliminary data.

AuthorPolzin, Paul E.
PositionStatistical data

Cascade County is a classic example of why historic data, however accurate, may not be a reliable indicator of what is happening now. Specifically, the latest annual data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis do not reflect the new indirect energy-related manufacturing activity that only started to show up late in 2013.

First, the historic data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. These figures show that the Great Falls' area economy was relatively unaffected by the Great Recession, mostly due to its dependence on the noncyclical military at Malmstrom Air Force Base. From 2011 to 2013 the economy was roughly stable, mostly due to a very slow recovery in construction and consolidations in the banking and finance industry.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes another data series that is more current and quarterly, rather than annual, but is not as detailed as the Bureau of Economic Analysis's figures. Beginning in the third quarter of 2013 and continuing through the second quarter of 2014, total manufacturing employment increased by about 100 to 200 workers. A rough back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that average annual wages are about $35,000 per year. Detailed data is not available yet, but these figures correspond almost exactly to the announced plans of ADF and Loehnbro. ADF is a Canadian company producing oil production modules for customers in the oil sands of Alberta, and Loehnbro is a pipe-welding company serving the Bakken oil fields on the Montana/North Dakota line. In addition, BE Aerospace, a manufacturer of aircraft passenger cabin interior products with a location in Great Falls, continues to add employees.

The forecast calls for about 2.2 percent average growth from 2015 to 2018. This is faster than the last five to seven years, but Cascade County is...

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