Candidate Repositioning, Valence, and a Backfire Effect from Criticism

• Author: Andrew Gooch
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221125222
• Published date: 01 November 2022
• Date: 01 November 2022

Article

AmericanPoliticsResearch

2022,Vol.50(6)757–768

©TheAuthor(s)2022

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DOI:10.1177/1532673X221125222

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CandidateRepositioning,Valence,anda

BackfireEffectfromCriticism

AndrewGooch

1

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Abstract

Politicianswhoswitchpolicypositionsareoftencriticizedforbeinginconsistent“flip-floppers”,whichsuggestsavalencepenalty

forrepositioning.Usingasurveyexperimentwithsixtreatmentconditionsandasampleof2694respondents,resultsshowthat

candidatesreceiveanincreaseinfavorabilityandperceivedcompetencywhenholdingaconsistentpositiononasylumseekers

fromthecampaigntoholdingoffice.Repositioningonasylumseekersreducesfavorabilityandperceivedcompetency.However,

intreatmentconditionswherethecandidateiscriticizedfor“flip-flopping”byunelectedgroups,candidatefavorabilityimproves

relativetoatreatmentconditionwhereonlytherepositioningispresented.Theseresultssuggestthatabackfireeffectmight

occurfromcriticisms.Thisbackfireoccursonaverageacrossallrespondents.Thisstudycontributestothelineofresearchthat

showsmechanismsthatoffsetthenegativeeffectsofrepositioning.

Keywords

repositioning,experiment,valence,backfireeffect

AnenduringpartofAmericanpoliticsincludespoliticians

repositioningfromonesideofanissuetoanotherthroughout

theircareers,oftendubbednegativelyas“flip-flopping”.

Whenrepositioningoccurs,politiciansareoftencriticizedfor

it,andtheconventionalwisdomisthatitcannegativelyaffect

theirelectoralprospects.Evenbeforethetermflip-flopping

becameinvogue,criticismsofrepositioningwereassociated

withtheterm“waffling”,whichoriginatedasacriticismof

JimmyCarterfor“wafflingandwiggling”onissues(Allgeier

etal.,1979).Repositioningisalsocriticizedintermsof

valencebypoliticaleliteswhererepositioningcreatesa

“credibilitygap”forcandidates(Spragens,1980).Salient

examplesofrepositioninghavetheirownrichhistoryand

specificcircumstances,whicharenotexactlyreplicatedhere,

butthepervasivenessofcriticismsforflip-floppingincon-

temporarypoliticssuggeststhatrepositioningcomeswitha

reputationalcost.Thisstudyevaluateshowcitizensrespond

toacandidatewhorepositionsintheshorttermfroma

campaigntotakingoffice.Morecrucially,thisstudyevalu-

ateshowcitizensareaffectedbycriticismsof“flip-flopping”

fromunelectedgroupslikethemedia,voters,andactivists.

Dothesecriticismsfurtherreducethepopularityofcandi-

dates?Or,dotheybackfireandactuallyhelptheflip-flopping

candidate?

Repositioningisalsoanenduringpartofpoliticalscience

research.Downs(1957)arguedthatindividualscareabout

statementsmadeduringcampaigns“onlyinsofarasthose

statementsserveasguidestothepoliciesthatpartywillcarry

outinoffice”(107).Candidateswhowanttomaximizetheir

voteshareshouldholdaconsistentpositionfromonetime

periodtoanothersothattheirpolicystatementsarereliable

(Downs,1957).Consistentpositioningalsobenefitstheparty

brand,whichinturninfluencesacandidate’selectoralsuccess

(Snyder&Ting,2002).However,isolatingtheeffectof

repositioningonacandidate’selectoralprospectsiscon-

foundingbecauserepositioningoccursatthesametimeas

manyotherpotentiallycausalfactors.Inaddition,thenature

ofeachrepositioningcasehastimeperiod-specificfeatures

makinggeneralizationsdifficult.Thismakesattributing

electoralsuccessorfailuretorepositioningconfounding

usingobservationaldata.Inaddition,successfulpoliticians

donotrepositionhaphazardlyorrandomly.Switchingpo-

sitionstypicallyoccurbecausethepoliticianbelievestheyare

advantagedbydoingsoforavarietyofpossiblereasons,

perhapsbecauseconstituents,donors,and/orinterestgroups

supportthenewposition(e.g.,Karol,2009).Previousre-

searchersrecognizedthesethreatstocausality,andasaresult,

researchhasfocusedonisolatingspecificaspectsofre-

positioningusingexperiments.Mostexperimentalresearch

1

RowanUniversity,Glassboro,NJ,USA

CorrespondingAuthor:

AndrewGooch,PoliticalScienceandEconomics,RowanUniversity,201

MullicaHillRoad,Glassboro,NJ08028,USA.

Email:gooch@rowan.edu