Can We Stay Ahead of the Obsolescence Curve? On Inflection Points, Proactive Preemption, and the Future of Supply Chain Management

Published date01 March 2014
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1111/jbl.12041
Date01 March 2014
Can We Stay Ahead of the Obsolescence Curve? On Inection
Points, Proactive Preemption, and the Future of Supply Chain
Management
Stanley E. Fawcett
1
and Matthew A. Waller
2
1
Weber State University
2
University of Arkansas
Great companieslike great products and great nationshave always endured a four-stage life cycle: emergence, growth, maturity, and
decline. Faster clockspeedsenabled by compressed technology cycles and accelerated by new knowledge-sharing routines such as
crowdsourcingare shrinking life cycles. What does this mean? Entities of all kinds now nd themselves in a constant race against obsoles-
cence. We thus ask a vital question,Can we (as a discipline) stay ahead of the obsolescence curve?Technological and sociological inection
points promise to change the rules of engagement. For instance, 3D printing, Big Data, and drones promise to change management practice.
Budget decits, poor skill improvement, and MOOCs promise to change academe. We discuss adaptation challenges and proactive preemption
as preludes to presenting various visions of the future of supply chain management.
Keywords: change management; environmental scanning; proactive preemption; supply chain management
When the rate of external change exceeds the rate of inter-
nal change, the end of your business is in sightJack Welch
Adapt or DieAndy Grove
INTRODUCTION: IS ALL SUCCESS TEMPORARY?
Almost 15 years ago, Charles Fine proclaimed the demise of sus-
tainable competitive advantage. Fine described a world of fast
clockspeeds, arguing,
All advantage is temporary. No capability is unassailable,
no lead is uncatchable, no kingdom is unbreachable.
Indeed, the faster the clockspeed, the shorter the reign.
Sustainable advantage is a slow-clockspeed concept; tem-
porary advantage is a fast-clockspeed concept. And, clock-
speeds are increasing almost everywhere. (Fine 1998, 13)
In todays fast-clockspeed world, the one constant is change!
Obsolescence is the natural end for all but the most agile and
adaptable entities. Perhaps you remember corporate icons like
A&P, Bethlehem Steel, Circuit City, Compaq Computer, and Pan-
Am. Each dominated its industry. At its heyday, A&P operated
over 15,000 storesmore than any other retailer, ever!A&P
made the tagline Everyday low pricefamous. PanAm ushered
in modern air travel, launching Boeings 747. Circuit City was
touted as one of Jim Collinselite Good-to-Greatcompanies.
Aside from their uniquely remarkable success, these companies
share an unenviable trait. Each is extinct, having vanished from
the competitive landscape.
Great companieslike great products (e.g., the Sony Walk-
man) and great nations (e.g., Greece, Rome, England)have
always endured a four-stage life cycle: emergence, growth, matu-
rity, and decline. Faster clockspeedsenabled by compressed
technology cycles and accelerated by new knowledge-sharing
routines such as crowdsourcingare shrinking life cycles (see
Figure 1). What does this mean? Entities of all kinds now nd
themselves in a constant race against obsolescence. Andy Grove
framed the challenge as follows:
The new environment dictates two rules: First, everything
happens faster; second, anything that can be done will be
done, if not by you, then by someone else, somewhere. Let
there be no misunderstanding: These changes lead to a
less kind, less gentle, and less predictable workplace
(Andy Grove, 1995).
Groves new environment places a premium on renewable
advantage. The ability to constantly, quickly, and correctly adapt
is the genetic trait of greatest value.
We have all read about great countries and witnessed great
companies that succumbed to obsolescence. We thus ask a vital
question, Will we as a discipline also fall prey to predatory
change?As a discipline, we have witnessed markedand at
times remarkableadaptability. Consider JBLs sponsoring orga-
nization, CSCMP. Born as the National Council of Physical Dis-
tribution Management, the Council has evolved, becoming the
Council of Logistics Management and then the Council for Sup-
ply Chain Management Professionals. At each transformation,
the Councils leaders recognized that the market was changing.
They adapted, renewing the value proposition and taking on
responsibility for more integrated value creation. Such adaptabil-
ity has assured survival. However, success tends to breed com-
placency and bureaucracyboth of which defy agile
adaptability. Mental models that led to success may become
Corresponding author:
Stanley E. Fawcett, Business Administration, Weber State Univer-
sity, WB 267, Ogden, UT 84408, USA; E-mail: stan.e.fawc-
ett@gmail.com
Journal of Business Logistics, 2014, 35(1): 1722
© Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals

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