Can the U.S. cope with the techno-future?

• Author: Haavind, Robert

REMARKABLE ADVANCES in technology rapidly are transforming business and industry all over the globe, and even faster change is coming. The impact will be tremendous, not just on business, but on national economies and social structures as well. Emerging technologies have the potential to give an edge not just to companies, but to nations that make the most effective use of them. Conversely, if new breakthroughs and the changes they induce are dealt with clumsily, economic decline and social decay are likely to follow.

Is the US. prepared for this accelerating development? The answer appears to be a resounding "No!" The technological lead that once enabled American firms to be global pacesetters in almost every industry not only is eroding, recent studies have shown the US. already is lagging in dozens of critical areas. Severe cutbacks in commercial research and development (R&D) accompanied the financial machinations of the 1980s, and they have gone even deeper during the ensuing recession. Most government support of R&D is for military technology, which produces much less commercial spillover now than it did a few decades back.

It is not just in technology markets that other nations are gaining on the US. The global economic race that has replaced the Cold War will depend less on a nation's ability to spawn new technologies than being able to find effective uses for them rapidly. Industries elsewhere, particularly in Japan and Germany, have been doing a superior job of putting advanced technology--often based on developments that originated in the U.S.--to work.

As a result, productivity elsewhere has been growing at a faster pace. Economic data also shows a widening gap between the upper and lower segments of American society. Advancing technology will contribute to this growing schism unless education is upgraded to help provide higher skills for the labor force so that U.S. workers can compete with those in other countries.

Can the U.S. reverse this decline? The answer clearly is "Yes." The U.S. remains the richest nation in the world, and the ending of the Cold War substantially should reduce the financial drain of decades of heavy military spending. This, in turn, could free capital and human resources to help revive American business and to strengthen the physical, social, and educational infrastructure essential to maintaining a high standard of living.

Such a revival is possible, but unlikely unless there is a major overhaul in national policies and organizational structures. The first step--not just in business and industry, but also in national institutions such as education, health care, and government--is to recognize that learning to deal with technologically induced change by necessity will be a process of discovery.

The old bureaucratic model of top-down management led by executives maintaining tight control while making decisions based on past experience (which becomes more and more outmoded) will become steadily less effective. In times when change was slow and fairly predictable, organizations could develop tried-and-true formulas for steady, long-term success. That approach doesn't work any longer.

Instead, successful organizations will need to foster a climate that encourages experimentation while being alert to useful ideas for implementing improvements wherever they may be found. Much stronger contributions will be required at all levels, with management providing the leadership for over-all direction and inspiration, rather than issuing dictates and setting policies that sharply may proscribe individual initiative. Another important function will be communication, not just up and down, but across and even among organizations, so that useful information and good ideas can flow freely and be accessible from anywhere needs arise.

Before looking at how the U.S. might take better advantage of emerging technologies, a quick overview of a few developments that are expected to have an important impact will be useful. Advances such as these will provide opportunities for individual organizations that structure themselves to gain maximum benefit from the coming changes.

Advances and their impact

The laser-guided smart bombs that television images showed performing so well in the Gulf War are old technology. The U.S. hardly has begun to put technologies such as artificial intelligence and signal...