Can Obama be beaten?

• Author: Thomson, James W.
• Position: Political Landscape - Barack Obama - Viewpoint essay

AFTER THE extraordinary congressional gains made by the Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections, many GOP partisans dared to hope that they had a genuine opportunity for complete victory by winning the presidency and the Senate this November--but not so fast. Although Pres. Barack Obama continues to slump while the economy remaines in a recovery quagmire, he still has an excellent chance of being reelected.

In the past, a troubled economy coupled with high unemployment would signal an almost certain defeat at for any incumbent president. Remember Bill Clinton's mantra for the 1992 campaign: "It's the economy, stupid." In 1992, Clinton's slogan worked against incumbent George H.W. Bush despite the President's popularity following victory in the first Iraqi war. However, the old roles may not apply in 2012 for many reasons, including the nation's changing demographics, unpredictable voting behavior, and the quirky institutional features of presidential elections.

The most significant factor is that the 2012 electorate could include 50,000,000 more "active" voters--eligible citizens who actually cast a ballot--than in 2010. Although some of them will be new voters, most had supported Obama in 2008, when he received more than 69,000,000 votes (compared to the winning House Republicans' 31,000,000). The GOP likely face a steep uphill battle to win over a suspicious electorate that mistrusts Congress and the Republicans.

In 2012, the American electorate will be younger, more racially diverse, less white, and far less conservative. Given this scenario, it is very likely that many voters will not vote for the sort of white Republican politicians who make up the bulk of Speaker John Boehner's majority in the House of Representatives. The political effects of U.S. demographics is likely to influence the presidential and congressional races.

Despite forecasts from pundits who believe that the stagnant economy will damage Obama's chances, it will be the 10% to 15% of the electorate, the "swing" voters, who will determine the winners and losers. It is unlikely that Pres. Obama will suffer a humiliating defeat like the hapless Jimmy Carter (in 1980), whose presidency was overwhelmed by economic challenges. If Obama indeed ends up losing, it will be mighty close.

The U.S. often is heralded as the world's greatest democracy but, in fact, most Americans are not committed voters. Few citizens vote every year and almost half never vote at all. Those who legally are eligible to vote fall into three categories: about 40% of the...