Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?

• Position: Brief Article

A new way of dating earthquakes, providing a more precise time line for past quakes and allowing for a more accurate way of assessing the probability of future ones, has been developed by Jay S. Noller, assistant professor of geology, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tenn., and researcher Marek Zreda of the University of Arizona, Tucson. While studying bedrock formations in the Hebgen Lake fault in Montana, they discovered that the chemical makeup of the bedrock had changed after it was affected by an earthquake. By taking a closer look at the bedrock, they were able to determine how long ago the quake had occurred, how often quakes take place in that area, and the probability of another quake happening.

According to Noller, "Bedrock exposures last tens of thousands of years, but river deposits don't last as long. They get buried or eroded away, so they last only a few thousand years. The longer the track record you have of an area, the better idea you have of how things work. The track record lets us estimate the likelihood of future earthquakes."

After a large-magnitude earthquake occurs, the planet's crust is shifted, exposing...