Campaigns, Mobilization, and Turnout in Mayoral Elections

• Date: 01 March 2014
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912913494018
• Published date: 01 March 2014
• Subject Matter: Articles

Political Research Quarterly

2014, Vol. 67(1) 42 –55

© 2013 University of Utah

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DOI: 10.1177/1065912913494018

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Article

Introduction

Scholars, journalists, and policymakers have long

expressed concern with the low levels of voter turnout

that characterize U.S. elections, and nowhere is turnout

lower than in local elections. In fact, some have even sug-

gested that these low turnout rates signal a “crisis in

American democracy” (Hajnal and Lewis 2003, 645).

Wood (2002), for instance, finds an average turnout rate

of 34 percent in city elections across fifty-seven cities.

Similarly, Caren (2007) reports an average turnout rate of

just 27 percent for mayoral elections across thirty-eight

large U.S. cities.1 Hajnal and Lewis (2003, 646) pinpoint

an important concern with low levels of citizen engage-

ment in local elections, noting that “at the local level

where policies are most likely to be implemented and

where a majority of the nation’s civic leaders are being

elected, important public policy decisions are being made

without the input of most of the affected residents.”

Indeed, a number of studies have shown that local turnout

patterns have important political consequences. Hajnal

and Trounstine (2005) and Hajnal (2010), for example,

find that low turnout in city elections reduces the repre-

sentation of Latinos and Asian Americans on city coun-

cils and in the mayor’s office. Low turnout in city

elections also appears to skew local spending policies

(Hajnal 2010) and create opportunities for organized

interests to influence public policy (Anzia 2011). These

concerns highlight the importance of understanding what

drives turnout at the local level. There are real conse-

quences from low turnout, consequences that may matter

a lot for representation and policies.

Recently, the issue of low turnout has captured the atten-

tion of local policymakers across the United States. New

York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, for example, pro-

claimed that “Voter turnout in elections for all levels of

government is unacceptably low” (quoted in Reforms to

Make Voting Easier 2010). In a 2011 interview on elec-

tions in his city, Memphis, Tennessee Mayor A. C. Whar-

ton made this appeal to voters, “I beg them to get out

and vote, council races, mayor races because this is where

the action is going to be” (quoted in Wimbley 2011). In

the same vein, Mayor Lee Leffingwell of Austin, Texas,

pointed out in 2011 that

Citizen participation is the lifeblood of a healthy democracy,

and obviously this is something we value deeply in Austin.

But unfortunately, when it comes time for our citizens to go

to the polls in May and choose their representatives at City

Hall, most of them simply don’t. (Leffingwell 2011, p. 1)

Some mayors have speculated about the causes of low

turnout and a number of them have even proposed policy

reforms aimed at boosting turnout in mayoral and city

council elections. For instance, in his 2011 state of the city

address, Mayor Leffingwell outlined several potential

494018PRQXXX10.1177/1065912913494018Holbrook and WeinschenkPolitical Research Quarterly

research-article2013

1University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA

2University of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI, USA

Corresponding Author:

Aaron C. Weinschenk, Department of Political Science, University of

Wisconsin, Green Bay, 2420 Nicolet Drive, Green Bay, WI 54311,

USA.

Email: weinscha@uwgb.edu

Campaigns, Mobilization, and Turnout in

Mayoral Elections

Thomas M. Holbrook1 and Aaron C. Weinschenk2

Abstract

Research on local turnout has focused on institutions, with little attention devoted to examining the impact of campaigns.

Using an original data set containing information from 144 large U.S. cities and 340 separate mayoral elections over

time, our contributions to the scholarship in this field are manifold: we focus the literature more squarely on the

impact of campaigns by examining the role of campaign effort (measured with campaign expenditures), candidates,

and competition in voter mobilization; demonstrate the relative importance of challenger versus incumbent campaign

effort in incumbent contests; and show that changes in campaign activities influence changes in turnout over time.

Keywords

mayoral elections, voter turnout, local politics, civic engagement, mayors