California dreamin' no longer for kids.

• Position: YOUR LIFE

An unprecedented decline in California's child population, coupled with a tidal wave of baby boom retirees, will pose significant challenges for the state's future prosperity, according to an analysis of census data released by the University of Southern California Price School of Public Policy, Los Angeles.

California's demographic shift mirrors that of some other states, including New York, Illinois, Michigan, and Massachusetts.

In 1970, children made up 33% of California's population but, by 2030, they are expected to comprise 21%. The growing imbalance between children and retirees means that the economic role of a child born in 2015 will be nearly twice as important as that of a child born in 1985, the report suggests.

"These trends are not yet widely recognized, but they should be a wakeup call for policymakers," stresses report author Dowell Myers, professor of policy and demography and director of the Population Dynamics Research Group. "We will be increasingly de pendent economically and socially on a smaller number of children. They are more important to the state's future success than ever before"

Why exactly is California's child population shrinking? Far-reaching demographic changes, including declining birth rates, fewer newcomers to the state, and a smaller population of women of childbearing age all play a role, Myers indicates.

The state's birth rate has declined in every major racial and ethnic group since...