Burglar Target Selection

• Published date: 01 February 2015
• Author: Shane D. Johnson,Wim Bernasco,Michael Townsley,Stijn Ruiter,Daniel Birks,Scott Baum,Gentry White
• DOI: 10.1177/0022427814541447
• Date: 01 February 2015
• Subject Matter: Article

Article

Burglar Target

Selection: A Cross-

national Comparison

Michael Townsley

1

, Daniel Birks

2

,

Wim Bernasco

3,7

, Stijn Ruiter

3,8

,

Shane D. Johnson

4

, Gentry White

5

,

and Scott Baum

6

Abstract

Objectives: This study builds on research undertaken by Bernasco and

Nieuwbeerta and explores the generalizability of a theoretically derived

offender target selection model in three cross-national study regions.

Methods: Taking a discrete spatial choice approach, we estimate the impact

of both environment- and offender-level factors on residential burglary

placement in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Combin-

ing cleared burglary data from all study regions in a single statistical model,

we make statistical comparisons between environments. Results: In all three

1

School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia

2

ARC Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia

3

Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), Amsterdam

4

UCL Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, London, UK

5

Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queens-

land, Australia

6

Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia

7

Department of Spatial Economics, VU University, Netherlands

8

Department of Sociology, Utrecht University, Netherlands

Corresponding Author:

Daniel Birks, ARC Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security, Griffith University, Brisbane,

Australia.

Email: d.birks@griffith.edu.au

Journal of Research in Crime and

Delinquency

2015, Vol. 52(1) 3-31

ªThe Author(s) 2014

Reprints and permission:

sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav

DOI: 10.1177/0022427814541447

jrc.sagepub.com

study regions, the likelihood an offender selects an area for burglary is posi-

tively influenced by proximity to their home, the proportion of easily acces-

sible targets, and the total number of targets available. Furthermore, in two

of the three study regions, juvenile offenders under the legal driving age are

significantly more influenced by target proximity than adult offenders. Post

hoc tests indicate the magnitudes of these impacts vary significantly

between study regions. Conclusions: While burglary target selection strate-

gies are consistent with opportunity-based explanations of offending, the

impact of environmental context is significant. As such, the approach under-

taken in combining observations from multiple study regions may aid crim-

inology scholars in assessing the generalizability of observed findings across

multiple environments.

Keywords

offender mobility, residential burglary, discrete spatial choice, replication

Introduction

Understanding how offenders choose where to commit crime is a classic

criminological problem. There is long-standing empirical evidence that

offenders do not necessarily offend where they live (Boggs 1965; Lottier

1938a, 1938b;Schmid 1960). This has led researchers to focus on explaining

the ‘‘push-pull’’ factors of offender choice (Brantingham and Brantingham

1995; Pyle and Hanten 1974; Schmid 1960) and importantly environmental

factors that impede or facilitate mobility, such as public transport or street

networks (Beavon, Brantingham, and Brantingham, 1994; Clare, Fernandez,

and Morgan 2009; Johnson and Bowers 2010; Ratcliffe 2006).

Historically, however, two important issues have limited understanding

of offender mobility: (1) lack of a general paradigm to study the spatial

behavior of offenders and (2) lack of systematic replication studies.

Addressing the first of these issues in their study of residential burglary,

Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta (2005) propose the discrete spatial choice

approach, consolidating extant methodologies—offender-, target-, and

mobility-based studies—in a single analytical framework. Subsequently,

this approach has enabled similar studies of burglary (Bernasco 20 06;

Clare et al. 2009) and has been applied to the analysis of different types

of crime (Baudains, Braithwaite, and Johnson 2013; Bernasco 2010; Ber-

nasco and Block 2009; Bernasco, Block, and Ruiter 2013; Bernasco and

Kooistra 2010).

4Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 52(1)