Building a 21st Century Nuclear Posture.

• Author: Johns, Michael
• Position: NDIN Policy Points

* In August, the Pentagon began its Nuclear Posture Review, a six-month process of comprehensively evaluating the U.S. nuclear arsenal and strategic doctrine.

The review, which every U.S. president has discharged since Bill Clinton, is an important opportunity for the Biden administration to revisit the full spectrum of nuclear policy and set out a blueprint for a 21st century posture. In a world returning to great power competition, U.S. security relies more than ever on a robust and sustainable strategic arsenal and nuclear production enterprise.

With this opportunity in hand, the administration should consider and build on the recommendations of the last Nuclear Posture Review in 2018, which noted that the current U.S. nuclear triad--which was largely put into place in the 1980s or earlier--is aging.

"Unlike potential adversaries," the NPR observed, the United States "has not executed a new nuclear weapon program for decades." Instead, ongoing work focuses on life-extension programs for existing weapons and maintaining atrophying production and delivery capabilities.

The primary concern for the upcoming review must be the aging of the triad, which to an alarming extent is at least 30 years old and has not enjoyed steady recapitalization in nearly as long.

For example, the current land-based intercontinental ballistic missile force exclusively consists of 400 Minuteman III ICBMs, deployed throughout the United States in underground silos. These missiles, first deployed in the 1970s, were designed for a 10- to 20-year lifespan--and yet through life extension have been retained for over two-and-a-half times that intended period.

This trend applies to the other legs of the triad: the most advanced nuclear capable aircraft, B-2A bombers, carry cruise missiles from 1982 that are now more than a quarter century past their design life, and Ohio-class submarines--initially introduced in 1981 for an intended 30-year service life--have been life extended to 42 years, carrying ballistic missiles which have also had their lives extended.

This aging process is a clear and present concern for the security of the United States and its allies, and sustainment cannot continue indefinitely. Although the replacement of these missiles and systems will undeniably be a significantly expensive undertaking, it will have to be done eventually--and without action, will simply become more painful as time passes.

But even if the Biden administration fully addresses...