Bringing Out the Hook

• Author: Regina G. Lawrence,Melody Rose
• Published date: 01 December 2011
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912910376390
• Date: 01 December 2011

Political Research Quarterly
64(4) 870 –883
Bringing Out the Hook: Exit Talk in
© 2011 University of Utah
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Media Coverage of Hillary Clinton
DOI: 10.1177/1065912910376390
http://prq.sagepub.com
and Past Presidential Campaigns
Regina G. Lawrence1 and Melody Rose2
Abstract
In this article the authors measure a phenomenon they name “exit talk”: the undertheorized pressures that second-
place contenders for presidential nominations face to exit the race. Content analysis of media exit talk from the 2008
Clinton candidacy compared with that of key comparators from other modern presidential campaigns suggests that
Clinton experienced greater levels of exit talk than her historical comparators, though less explicit pressure to exit
than was exerted on Ronald Reagan in 1976. The authors also find that a higher percentage of Clinton exit talk was
unattributed to its source. They investigate the potential causes for these findings and recommend further study of
whether this heightened pressure to exit constitutes an unexamined hurdle for female presidential contenders.
Keywords
presidential election, nominations, exit, Hillary Clinton, media
The presidential campaign of 2008 was unique in a vari-
in 1988) who waged long campaigns and came in second
ety of ways, including high levels of public interest in the
in their parties’ nominating contests. Our data show that
campaign, record-breaking campaign spending, and, of
exit themes were more numerous in media coverage of
course, an unprecedented contest for the Democratic nom-
Clinton than any of these comparators and that exit talk
ination between an African American man and a white
around Hillary Clinton’s campaign was qualitatively dif-
woman. The outcome of the Democratic nominating con-
ferent, emanating more from unattributed sources and/or
test in 2008 also challenged a key contention of the politi-
reporters themselves rather than from named sources. To
cal science literature: that the front-runners who emerge
verify that finding and assess to what degree this may
in the preprimary season (or “invisible primary”) usually
reflect changes in media norms and routines since 1988,
win their party’s nomination (Mayer 2003, 2008). Sena-
we include a comparison of exit talk around Clinton with
tor Hillary Rodham Clinton was a vivid example of a
three other trailing candidates from 2008: John Edwards,
clear early front-runner (Newport 2007; Citrin and Karol
Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee. We conclude our
2009; Todd and Gawiser 2009) who ultimately lost.
study with a discussion of the factors that contributed
Various commentators argued during the campaign
to the prominence and character of Clinton exit talk
that as the contest between she and Senator Barack Obama
in 2008.
wore on, Senator Clinton was subjected to unprecedented
pressures to exit the race. We take these claims as an
Exit Talk and the Nomination
opportunity to explore a facet of campaign politics that
has been undertheorized, a phenomenon we label “exit
Attrition Game
talk”: news coverage and media commentary that dis-
Nominating contests are by definition a process of attrition
cusses whether, when, and how a candidate might end his
(Norrander 2006). Most candidates will face decisions
or her campaign and leave the nominating race. Situated
within the literature on candidate messaging and attrition
1Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
during nominating contests and the literature on the
2Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA
media’s role in winnowing candidates, this study com-
pares exit talk in media coverage of Hillary Clinton with
Corresponding Author:
Melody Rose, Portland State University, Mark O. Hatfield School of
that of four past candidates (Ronald Reagan in 1976, Ted
Government, Division of Political Science, Portland, OR 97207
Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1984, and Jesse Jackson
Email: rosem@pdx.edu

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Lawrence and Rose
871
about when and how to exit the race—a process that has
voters, and therefore their campaign messaging typically
been dubbed the “calculus of concession” (Haynes et al.
emphasizes their competitive viability vis-à-vis the front-
2004). Several factors appear to drive candidates’ deci-
runner (Haynes et al. 2002). Part of trailing candidates’
sions. Money is key, of course, as is the number of dele-
messaging, therefore, aims to fend off questions about
gates a candidate wins in early contests and the candidate’s
whether and when they will exit.
standing in national polls. Candidates who are truly “office
Moreover, implicit or explicit exit calls may be exp-
seekers” are likely to exit a race earlier than “nontraditional,”
ected from party leaders anxious to position their party for
“policy-seeking,” or “agenda-seeking” candidates, whose
the general election. For example, in the crowded contest
goals are not necessarily hampered by remaining in a race
for the Democratic nomination in 1988, which included
they seem sure to lose (Haynes et al. 2004; Norrander 2006).1
Al Gore, Jesse Jackson, Richard Gephardt, and Paul
Media coverage looms as another important factor in
Simon as well as the eventual nominee Michael Dukakis,
candidate attrition since it is deeply intertwined with
Democratic Party chairman Paul G. Kirk publicly asked
campaign fund-raising and political viability. The media
all candidates after that year’s Super Tuesday contests to
actively (though not necessarily intentionally) contribute
support what he called the “inevitable nominee” who
to the winnowing of candidates (Crotty 1985; Hagen and
would emerge by the final primaries in June (Oreskes
Mayer 2000; Matthews 1978; Patterson 1994)—a figura-
1988). Having lost four out of five prior presidential elec-
tive “St. Peter guarding the gates of the presidential nom-
tions, Democrats were eager to anoint a winning nominee;
ination process judging which candidates are worthy of
Kirk’s announcement amounted to a call for all candi-
precious news space” (Flowers, Haynes, and Crespin 2003,
dates but one to leave the race voluntarily.
259). Front-runners dominate media coverage (Hagen 1996;
The media also have ample incentives to promulgate
Kendall 2005), while those candidates lagging in fund-
exit talk. National political reporters typically bring the
raising or in public opinion polls tend to be written out of
“horse race” script to elections coverage (Benoit, Stein,
the campaign coverage (Meyrowitz 1994)—potentially
and Hansen 2005; Farnsworth and Lichter 2003; Kendall
creating a vicious circle in which lack of media coverage
2005; Lawrence 2000; Lawrence and Rose 2009; Patter-
lowers fund-raising, which further reduces media coverage
son 1994)—what has been described as “the relentless
and thus name recognition. A key dynamic in the modern
tendency of the press [to craft] running narratives about
age of nomination front-loading is this concurrent win-
the relative position of the candidates in the polls” (Proj-
nowing and attrition process, in which the media and the
ect for Excellence in Journalism 2008). Knowing this ten-
candidates, as well as contributors and some voters, deter-
dency, campaigns expend “substantial effort to define the
mine who is and who will remain “viable,” often within a
horse race for the media” (Haynes et al. 2002, p. 647).
short period.
Moreover, news organizations face considerable chal-
To the degree that a serious office-seeking candidate
lenges whenever the field is crowded with potential can-
wishes to remain competitive, public pressure to exit a
didates. Reporters and editors look for signals about the
race—or to justify a decision to remain in the race—
candidates’ continued viability to decide whom to cover
becomes an important feature of campaign discourse.
and who can defensibly be given less coverage (Meyrow-
While candidates’ decisions about when to exit have
itz 1992; Patterson 1994). These journalistic routines cre-
been studied (Haynes et al. 2004; Norrander 2006), less
ate incentives for reporters to amplify, and even to induce,
attention has been paid to the rhetorical pressures exerted
the exit talk of candidates, party leaders, and pundits.
on trailing candidates by their opponents, party elites,
and media commentators and how trailing candidates res-
Research Objectives
pond to such pressures.
Incentives to engage in exit talk exist for virtually all
One goal of the present study is to delineate exit talk as a
players in the nominating process. Front-runners are likely
particular form of campaign discourse. While the amount
to disseminate “negative competitive positioning” mes-
of media coverage various candidates receive is an
sages that overtly point out trailing candidates’ weaker
important variable in nominating contests (Haynes et al.
standing (Haynes et al. 2002). It is but a short step from
2004; Shen 2008), as is the general framing of campaign
pointing out weaknesses to implicitly suggesting that the
coverage, here we consider a specific qualitative aspect
weaker opponent should exit the race. Trailing candi-
of candidates’ coverage: What forms does exit talk take,
dates, meanwhile, often attempt to maintain public percep-
and have those forms varied across electoral contexts?
tions of their electoral viability. Those who have enough
A key reason for examining the forms of exit talk,
...