Bright(ish) Horizons: Experts predict better times for some Alaskan job seekers.

AuthorMackenzie, Kathryn
PositionCORPORATE 100 SPECILA SECTION / 2019 JOBS FORECAST

By most accounts Alaska's economy is finally set to emerge from several years of recession. The state's residents can expect more employment opportunities with about 1,400 new jobs coming online in industries that have been stripping costs and reducing headcounts over the past four years. The primary drivers behind this (albeit slow) recessionary emergence are military spending, new and legacy projects in the oil and gas industry, and tourism, according to Alaska Economic Trends Job Forecast for 2019 by Karinne Wiebold, economist for the Alaska Department of Labor.

With that said, there are some unknowns keeping analysts and industry watchers cautiously optimistic about the state's economic recovery.

"The state has a number of challenges and opportunities in the coming years. There is increased oilfield activity, tourism numbers are strong, and the F-35 installation at Eielson Air Force base is bringing in a lot of federal money as the base gets ready for the active military and family arrivals as well as federal civilian employment," says Wiebold. "At the same time, the state government has real structural issues relating to revenue and expenditures that must be addressed. The economy will be affected by those policy decisions, although what will be done and the effects are unknown."

Earlier this year Governor Mike Dunleavy proposed wide ranging budget cuts, calling for significant reductions to education, healthcare, and transportation, among other sectors. He also unveiled a plan to repeal municipalities' current ability to levy taxes on oil and gas property, including exploration, production, and pipeline transportation properties. Dunleavy's proposal would redirect those funds--an estimated $440 million--to the state in a move that primarily affects the North Slope Borough, which generates the majority of oil and gas tax revenue in the state.

Economic Drivers

Even as Alaska's elected officials attempt to address the state's $1.5 billion deficit problem, economists are predicting brighter days ahead for many of Alaska's vital industries, including the natural resources sector, which in Alaska Economic Trends Job Forecast for 2019 includes mining and oil and gas.

"Sectors devastated early in the recession are beginning to add jobs again. Oil industry employment stabilized in mid- to late-2018, and increased activity on the North Slope signals resumed growth," writes Wiebold in Alaska Economic Trends Job Forecast for 2019.

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