Breaking the Chain: How Arrests Reduce the Probability of Near Repeat Crimes

• Author: Andrew P. Wheeler,Cory P. Haberman,Jordan R. Riddell
• Date: 01 June 2021
• Published date: 01 June 2021
• DOI: 10.1177/0734016821999707
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Breaking the Chain: How

Arrests Reduce the

Probability of Near

Repeat Crimes

Andrew P. Wheeler

1

, Jordan R. Riddell

2

, and Cory P. Haberman

3

Abstract

Objectives: Near repeat patterns have been identified for a host of different crimes, but effective

strategies to reduce near repeats have had more variable results. This study identifies near repeat

crime patterns in Dallas, TX, and examines the effects of an arrest on reducing the probability of

future crime. Method: Using open-source crime data from the Dallas Police Department from July

2014 through June 2018, we identified near repeat patterns for shootings, interpersonal robberies,

residential burglaries, and thefts from motor vehicles. Logistic regression models were used to test

the effect of an arrest on reducing near repeat crimes; controls for geographic, demographic, and

temporal factors were included in each model. Results: Near repeat calculations suggest violent

crime clustered closely in time and space, with property crime dispersed over larger spatial and

temporal dimensions. Across all four crime types, findings suggest arrests resulted in 20%–40%

reductions in a near repeat follow-up crime. Conclusions: In line with past research on shootings,

arrests reduced the likelihood of subsequent crimes. This suggests policing strategies to increase

arrests may be a fruitful way to reduce near repeat crime patterns.

Keywords

near repeat, arrests, spatial analysis, crime analysis

Near repeat crime patterns are the concentration of crime incidents in both space and time (Townsley

et al., 2003). Drawing from epidemiology, the idea is that the occurrence of a crime creates a

heightened risk of a subsequent crime in nearby areas (e.g., a street block or two) for a short time

(e.g., a few days to weeks; Knox, 1964). In sum, near repeat crime patterns are a well-established

criminological finding for many differen t crime types (S. D. Johnson et al., 2007; Rat cliffe &

1

HMS, TX, USA

2

Criminology and Criminal Justice Program, School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, The University of Texas at

Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA

3

School of Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati, OH, USA

Corresponding Author:

Andrew P. Wheeler, HMS, 5615 High Point Dr #100, Irving, TX 75038, USA.

Email: apwheele@gmail.com; apwheele@gmail.com

Criminal Justice Review

2021, Vol. 46(2) 236-258

ª2021 Georgia State University

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DOI: 10.1177/0734016821999707

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Rengert, 2008; Youstin et al., 2011). But, studies evaluating policing strategies to address near

repeat crime patterns have shown mixed results (Elffers et al., 2018; Groff & Taniguchi, 2019; R.

B. Santos & Santos, 2016; Stokes & Clare, 2019). Here, we focus on whether arresting individuals

reduces the probability of a near repeat crime.

We build on prior work in two particular ways. Prior analyses of shooting data have established

that arrests reduce the probability of near repeat patterns (Wyant et al., 2012). In this work, we

establish whether this relationship also holds true for not only shootings in another sample but also

for three instrumental crimes: residential burglaries, interpersonal robberies, and thefts from motor

vehicles. If near repeat patterns are largely a function of the same individuals committing multiple

offenses in a short spree (S. D. Johnson et al., 2009), it may be the incapacitation or deterrent effects

of an arrest are larger for instrumental crimes than for shootings, which are theoretically driven by

retaliatory violence (Loftin, 1986; Ratcliffe & Rengert, 2008).

Given that macro-level evidence of the effectiveness of arrests in reducing future crime are more

equivocal (Bursik et al., 1990; Chamlin et al., 1992; Levitt, 1998), examining very small space and

time windows provides a more direct test of the efficacy of arrest-based strategies that are less

influenced by potential endogeneity problems. If arrests provide subseq uent reductions in near

repeat offending, it can provide the foundation for assessing the benefits of increasing arrest rates

in reference to reduced crime rates.

Second, a variety of more recent work has established different predictive factors that

correlate with the probability of a near repeat crime (Garnier et al., 2018; Moreto et al.,

2014; Piza & Carter, 2018). In addition to formulating a regression mod el incorporating these

demographic and facility factors to account for additional confounds not present in prior work,

we include a factor for the historical density of crimes. Given that hot spots of crime tend to be

temporally stable (Curman et al., 2014; Weisburd et al., 2004; Wheeler et al., 2016), not

accounting for the underlying density can result in confounds in predicting which crimes are

likely to result in a near repeat offense.

A large sample of 4 years of open data on crime incidents and arrests from Dallas, TX, was used

for this study. Compared to prior work on shootings, we find that arrests tended to have similar

effectiveness in reducing the probability of a near repeat offense for all the crimes types examined

(Wyant et al., 2012), typically ranging from a reduction of 20%–40%near repeats across different

space and time windows. Given the low arrest rates for many of the crime types under stud y,

prioritizing events that have a higher probability of a near repeat crime may be a reasonable strategy

for police departments to tackle near repeat crimes.

Literature Review

Overview of Near Repeat Crime Patterns

Near repeat crime patterns occur when two or more crimes occur in a short spatial–temporal window

(Townsley et al., 2003). The basic idea is that a crime incident, often called the originator/initiator

event, spurs one or more subsequent crime incidents, often called the near repeat events, in the

immediate spatial area and in a short time frame of the originator event. The premise is adapted from

epidemiology and the transmission of infectious diseases (Knox, 1964). For example, an originator

house is burglarized on a Monday, and the next-door neighbor becomes a near repeat house when it

is burglarized the following Wednesday. While most work on near repeat crime patterns has been

focused on burglary (S. D. Johnson et al., 2007; Townsley et al., 2003), it has been shown to extend

to a variety of different crime types: robbery, shootings, theft from motor vehicles, thefts of motor

vehicles, arson, assault, economic crimes, piracy, and terroristic events (Behlendorf et al., 2012;

Block & Fujita, 2013; Braithwaite & Johnson, 2012; Haberman & Ratcliffe, 2012; Lockwood, 2012;

Wheeler et al. 237