Bosnia: the problem for peace activists.

• Author: Kaldor, Mary
• Position: Cover Story

What has happened in Bosnia is a shame. There is no other word for it. It is a failure and a humiliation. We should be deeply ashamed about the atrocities we have witnessed in Srebrenica and Zepa, the utter inability of the international community to keep its promises, and the unwillingness of our politicians to admit their guilt. How can they continue to insist that the U.N. operation is something to be proud of? If, for once, one of the politicians would say "sorry" to the people of Srebrenica, that could be a starting point for a different approach. How can the moral myopia of the key actors in the so-called international community be cured?

The clumsy compromise at the London Summit on July 20 is a victory for the Bosnian Serbs. The so-called international community has given the green light to the Pale Serbs to occupy all the safe havens except Gorazde and Sarajevo. The decision to defend Sarajevo and Gorazde, which should, of course, have been taken three years ago, is a welcome relief. But that does not mean that the U.N. should tolerate the terrorization of other safe havens--Zepa, Bihac, and perhaps Tuzla as well.

The attempt to achieve a political solution through talks with the warring sides has failed. Their demands are irreconcilable. The latest plan, the contact-group plan, which was at least supposed to hold Bosnia together, is finished. We can expect a new plan, which all sides will never agree to, for dividing Bosnia. Gorazde will be traded for a Berlin situation in Sarajevo and the safe havens will be abandoned.

Under this scenario, Tuzla, the town that has managed to preserve a non-nationalist politics throughout the war, will become vulnerable because it lies between the two halves of Serb-occupied territories and the Bosnian Serbs will want to improve their position on the ground.

The embargo will be lifted by the Islamic countries and perhaps also the United States, and we can expect a long war with a lot of casualties and the growth of Muslim nationalism on the Bosnian side.

The federation between the Croats and Muslims is unlikely to hold together. Once a divided Bosnia is back on the negotiating table, the Croats in Bosnia will want to join Croatia. And the war is likely to spread because of the way that the international community has condoned ethnic nationalism.

The position of the Republicans and many people on the American left is, in fact, much on the same line. While it is undoubtedly true that the Bosnians need heavy weapons, if this means withdrawal of U.N. forces and, probably also, Russian supplies to the Bosnian Serbs, the net outcome will be a long war and a victory for the more extreme nationalists on all sides who depend on a permanent war mentality.

The fundamental problem is the...