Book Review: The History of American Electoral Behavior

• Author: Thomas R. Marshall
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/106591297903200223
• Published date: 01 June 1979
• Date: 01 June 1979
• Subject Matter: Book Review

Book Reviews and Notes

235

The History

of

American Electoral Behavior.

Edited by

JOEL

H.

SILBEY,

ALLAN

G.

BOGUE, and WILLIAM

H.

FLANIGAN.

(Princeton: Princeton University Pms,

1978.

Pp.

384.

$27.50,

$12.50.)

This

collection of ten essays should interest serious students of political behavior

-

political scientists and political historians alike. Sponsored by the Mathematical

Social Science Board, these works apply contemporary social science research meth-

ods to recurring issues in political behavior and political history.

As

collections of

essays are wont to be, the articles vary widely in the issues raised and in the statis-

tical techniques applied. Still,

the

collection is unusually well written and most of

the articles should be intelligible to readers with even

a

moderate knowledge of

modern social statistics.

The essays focus on four questions: historical periods of voter realignment,

electoral participation, determinants of vote choice, and the historical impact of

voting on public policy.

Of

the

essays,

a

few are likely to command the widest

interest. Among these is Jcrrold Rusk and John Stucker’s carefully reasoned at-

tempt to unravel the impact of the poll tax, literacy test, and grandfather clauses

on the shrinking southern electorate during the late

1800s.

Applying time-lag

methods

to

study voter turnout,

Rusk

and Stucker offer

a

valuable addition to the

growing literature on the impact of election laws upon voter turnout.

Two of the essays rncrit attention by students

of

political parties. Martin

Shefter analyzes the Tammany machine’s rise in New York City. ShefteIs essay

(at least weakly) tests existing theories of party machines and finds them unable

to explain the ascendancy

of

the Tammany machine. Like most of

the

other essays,

Shifter relies on both aggregate-level voting data and census data. Nancy Zingale’s

essay focuses

on

a

persisting third-party movement

-

the Farmer-Labor party in

Minnesota. Again combining aggregate-level voting data and census information,

Zingale offers

a

modified theory to explain the persistence, then the disappearance

of

third parties.

hlost, but not all the essays rely heavily on aggrcgate-level data to measure

voting behavior and dcmo*;nphic characteristics.

As

a

result, most are necessarily

concerned with the problems

of

ecological fallacies and inference. One essay, by

John Shover and John Kushma, esamines the problem of ecological inference in

historical analysis. The authors offer

a

regression model to infer individual-level

behavior from aggregated data. \Vhile the editors appear to question the Shover-

Kushma analysis, academirs concerned with this problem will want to consider this

article seriously. Another essay, by David Rcynolds and Robert Dykstra,

also

ex-

plores the

use

of aggregate-level analysis in historical studies of electoral behavior.

Their conclusions suggest that quite different substantive conclusions may follow

from the

use

of alternative aggregate units

-

in this case, county-level data versus

toivnship-level data.

Overall, these essays again demonstrate how far historical inquiry

lias

come

from its earlier anecdotal and descriptive focus. Nor are most of the chapters

simply data-crunching exercises. Rather, they combine recurring historical problems

with modem statistical methods. For this reason, these essays will prove doubly

valuable both to historians and to political scientists interested in adding

a

historical

perspective to their knowledge of voting behavior, parties, and public policy.

TiroarAs

R. MARSHALL

The

University of Texas at Arlingtoiz

The Prodigal

Sotitli

Returns to Power.

By

HARRY

S.

DENT.

(New York: John

\Viley

&

Sons, Inc., 1978.

Pp.

302.

$12.95.)

“Long

a

sleeping giant and the economic and political stepchild

of

the nation,

the South has now become the balance of power in presidential politics.. . .” Two

factors have brought on this development:

(1)

the reintroduction of the two-party

system in thc area and (2) the great improvement of the South’s imag: through the

peaceful and honorable resolution of much of its racial problem, This is the thesis

presented by

Harry

S.

Dent in

The Prodigal South Returns

to

Power-a

book