Bloomington forecast 2022.

• Author: Pearl, Jennifer

The outlook for the Bloomington area economy in 2022 is good--a welcome respite from the economic and social roller coaster of the past two years, which has affected us in so many ways. At the end of 2020, local employers reported varying outlooks by industry, with concerns about the impact of the pandemic, remote work, Indiana University plans, labor and housing shortages, and more. While the 2022 forecast is far more positive, challenges remain.

The following local outlook is based on qualitative and quantitative data from employer surveys from the Bloomington Economic Development Corporation (BEDC) and Greater Bloomington Chamber of Commerce, as well as data from the Indiana Business Research Center (IBRC) and their Center for Econometric Modeling Research (CEMR) forecast.

Three key takeaways emerge:

1. There is a positive business outlook and market forecast.

2. Our market faces challenges that range from the continued pandemic to workforce and housing issues.

3. There are solutions to these challenges that we can pursue together.

1. A positive outlook

   Looking ahead to 2022, the Bloomington Economic Development Corporation again asked its members and partners about their own outlook for the coming year. Thirty-one mostly Bloomington-based employers responded, with 80% having fewer than 500 employees.

   Respondents represent industries from banking and finance, health care, construction, education, professional services, real estate, and more.

   The BEDC survey asked respondents to rate their overall business outlook for 2022 on a scale of zero (negative) to 10 (positive), with an average response of 6.93 (see Figure 1). Most respondents cited customer demand for products and services and the market for their business or industry as positive contributors to their outlooks.

   According to the CEMR forecast, the Bloomington metro economy, which is composed of Monroe and Owen counties, is back in the growth column and forecast to continue growing. The metro area has already seen a rebound in employment since the depths of 2020 and early 2021 (see Table 1).

   Our forecast predicts average annual job growth of 2.3% between 2021 and 2024, which is comparable to our neighbor to the east, Columbus, but slower than that of Indianapolis, Louisville and Lafayette. Notably, personal income--the combined work earnings, dividends, rent and interest, and government transfer payments--will see significant average annual growth of 4.8% between 2021 and 2024, which is comparable to Fort Wayne, Evansville and South Bend, but slower than Indianapolis, Anderson, Columbus, Lafayette and Elkhart. As competition for workers intensifies...