Bloomington forecast 2021.

• Author: Pearl, Jennifer

Who knew last year about this time that a pandemic would upend lives and our economies? Essentially, no one. As we write this prognosis on the relative health of the Bloomington economy, we cannot say with any certainty how 2021 will turn out--but we do know more than we did last spring and, by combining our quantitative analysis with qualitative insights from local businesses and tying these to the region's economic development strategies, we're in a good position to provide a forecast and targeted insights.

Public health, economic stability and business

We have all learned firsthand how public health--and a public health crisis--can affect our economy. There is a direct link between public health and economic stability that impacts our 2021 business outlook. It seems relevant to consider the public health community's concept about the social determinants of health, which illustrates the relationship between economic and social conditions with people's health.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines these social determinants as "conditions in the places where people live, learn, work and play that affect a wide range of health and quality-of life risks and outcomes."(1) Figure 1 (from the Kaiser Family Foundation) outlines the framework of these social determinants. Economic stability, neighborhood and physical environments, education, food, community and social context, and the health care system itself all influence the health outcomes of individuals and, as a result, their communities. National news in 2020 has highlighted how social determinants of health have been affected, often negatively, by the pandemic.

Figure 1: Social determinants of health Economic Neighborhood Education Food Stability and Physical Environment Employment Housing Literacy Hunger Income Transportation Language Access to Expenses Safety Early childhood healthy Debt Parks education options Medical bills Playgrounds Vocational Support Walkability training Zip code / Higher geography education Economic Community Health Care Stability and Social System Context Employment Social Heaitn Income integration coverage Expenses Support Provider Debt systems availability Medical bills Community Provider Support engagement linguistic and Discrimination cultural Stress competency Quality of care Health Outcomes Mortality Morbidity, Life Expectancy. Health Care Expenditures, Health Status, Functional Limitations Source: Kaiser Family Foundation It may go without saying, but we'll say it anyway: For employers, it is critical to have a healthy, vibrant workforce and a strong community that can participate in economic activity. All local employers in the Bloomington metro that were interviewed for this article discussed the pandemic or public health in some way. Employers touched on themes that included economic stability, housing and workforce training. Our ability to influence the business outlook for 2021 relates to how well we work as a community to address these challenges.

Employer interviews

The Bloomington Economic Development Corporation (BEDC) interviewed 20 of its members and partners regarding their outlooks for 2021. These organizations represented a range of industries, with no large sample of respondents in any one industry. Therefore, responses should be seen as examples of individual employer experiences across Monroe County. Respondents represent the following industries:

* Banking

* Business and economic development

* Construction and sub-contractors in electrical, heating and cooling, and environmental assessment

* Engineering

* Financial planning

* Hospitality and tourism

* Insurance

* Life sciences

* Manufacturing

* Medical and health services

* Property development

* Real estate

Several themes emerged from these conversations.

1. The pandemic and public health overall will continue to impact business in 2021.

   Almost...