Bloomington forecast 2014.

• Author: Conover, Jerry N.

Five years after the September 2008 financial market crash that sent economies around the world into a nosedive, the Bloomington area economy seems to be in reasonably decent shape. At the same time, the local region still faces several challenges, and recovery from the Great Recession is playing out unevenly throughout the metro area.

The Jobs Picture

The Bloomington metropolitan statistical area (MSA) employment has experienced gradual shrinkage over many years. From the recession's start in 2007 through 2012 the MSA has lost 1,154 payroll jobs (1.7 percent); the shrinkage in Owen County, however, was proportionally greater at 7.5 percent.

Most of the larger sectors in the Bloomington area have shed jobs over this period. These include manufacturing, construction, financial services, professional and business services and retail trade. Two large sectors, however, have expanded since 2007: health care and social assistance (gaining 1,167 jobs in Monroe County alone) and leisure and hospitality services (up 741 jobs in the MSA). The latter sector's growth is primarily in the food and beverage industry. Federal and local government employment is up 3 percent to 4 percent during this period, but state government jobs are down 11 percent.

The above figures are based on payroll data reported by employers and, as such, they reflect jobs in the Bloomington area, regardless of where the workers live. A different view is offered by monthly surveys of households (whose residents may work locally or commute to jobs elsewhere). The latter data indicate that 11,591 fewer Bloomington MSA residents were employed in August 2013 compared to five years earlier, while 1,953 more people were unemployed. Together, these figures reveal that the local labor force (employed persons plus people looking for work) has shrunk by nearly 10,000 people in the last five years. Some shrinkage comes from people no longer seeking work, and some from people who used to work outside the local area and now are not working; a fairly small portion comes from actual loss of jobs in the Bloomington metro area.

The outlook for 2014 calls for slight employment growth in 2014, with some sectors growing while others shrink. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline gradually, ending 2014 below 7 percent.

Economic Output

Measured by gross domestic product (GDP) at the MSA level, the Bloomington area's economy continues growing despite the decline in employment. Local economic growth...