Bloomington forecast 2013.

• Author: Slaper, Timothy F.
• Position: Bloomington, Indiana - Economy and employment of Metropolitan statistical areas

Not all good news is good. A reader of The Atlantic Cities in early September would have learned that Bloomington, Indiana, from 2010 to 2011, was the second-best metro for a pay raise in the whole country. (1) Wow! Bloomington is doing well! What a great place to live!

But the correct response to this revelation would be, "Huh? Say what?" The report was too good to he true. The claim was supported by a dubious use of data. Bloomington's average increase in wages was not in fact 7 percent in one year, but a more modest 2.7 percent. That's a rather average increase, but average can feel pretty good when many other localities have been hit harder. The Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has emerged from the Great Recession in reasonably good shape, and the forecast for the Bloomington area is reasonably good too.

The Bloomington area sustained considerable population growth over the past decade. As a whole, the MSA's population grew by around 10 percent, roughly equivalent to the national average. As Figure 1 shows, this growth occurred entirely within Monroe County. In contrast, the combined population of Greene and Owen counties has remained relatively constant, with a slight decrease over the last decade. This trend is projected to continue. Data from Moody's Economy.com suggest that growth in Monroe County will push the Bloomington MSA population to 200,000 by 2014.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The Bloomington MSA did not suffer the setback in economic growth that the state of Indiana did over the last half decade. However, this also means that the recovery has not been quite as rapid. In fact, Bloomington's gross domestic product (GDP) only dropped in one year, 2007, by a paltry 0.6 percent. In contrast, Indiana's GDP dropped 2.5 percent in 2008 and 7.6 percent in 2009 (see Figure 2). As a result of this, the rebound in economic growth has been sharper for Indiana than for Bloomington. Indiana's economy grew by 5.7 percent and 1.1 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively. In the same years, the Bloomington MSA's economy grew by only 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Projections have the state and the MSA tracking a little more closely in the coming years though: Growth is expected to be fairly similar for 2012 and 2013, albeit with Indiana still growing at a faster rate.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Employment is a somewhat different story. While the Bloomington MSA's employment did not see the steep drop in 2009 that Indiana did, its...