Bloomington forecast 2012.

• Author: Slaper, Timothy F.
• Position: Statistical data

While many Midwestern cities suffered mightily over the last few years, the Bloomington metropolitan statistical area (MSA) has emerged from the economic downturn in comparatively good shape. The forecast for the Bloomington area is relatively bright.

The Bloomington area sustained considerable population growth between the 2000 and 2010 censuses. As a whole, the MSA's population grew by close to 10 percent, roughly equivalent to the national average. As Figure 1 shows, this growth occurred entirely within Monroe County. In contrast, the combined population of Greene and Owen counties decreased by 203 people over the last 10 years. In the first half of the decade, the city of Bloomington lost population while the surrounding county gained. In the last five years, however, both the city of Bloomington and the rest of Monroe County have grown substantially. In the coming years, the county's population is expected to continue this increase.

The Bloomington MSA weathered the economic decline better than most other areas. In fact, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bloomington GDP never declined--although its growth did slow. Estimates show Bloomington's GDP growing by a scant 0.7 percent in 2010. Moody's Analytics forecasts the same paltry rate of economic growth for 2011. For 2012, Moody's forecasts a 1.6 percent rate of economic expansion.

Figure 1: Bloomington Population MSA by Geography, 2000 to 2010 Total Population 2000 2010 City of Bloomington 69,291 80,405 Monroe county(Outside Bloomington) 51,272 57,569 Outside Monroe County 54,943 54,740 Source: IBRC, using U.S. Census Bureau data Note: Table made from bar graph. Within the Bloomington MSA, different industries have experienced different patterns of growth. As shown in Figure 2, both the manufacturing and service-producing sectors have been steadily growing for more than 10 years. The service-producing sector did experience a significant drop in 2007 following a sharp increase, but has since made up most of the lost ground. Manufacturing output is at its highest level to date and is projected to continue the upward trend.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

While Bloomington will likely register positive, if sluggish, growth in GDP for 2011, the forecast for employment is not as positive since job growth typically lags economic growth. Payroll employment in Monroe County peaked in 2008 at just over 83,000 (see Figure 3). Since then, it has steadily declined to 81,600 in 2010...