Bloomington forecast 2011.

• Author: Slaper, Timothy F.
• Position: Statistical data

During the Great Recession, the Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) suffered considerably less than just about every other city or region in Indiana. In 2009 and 2010, Bloomington's peers would be justified in being a tad jealous. In the coming year, the prospects for the Bloomington area are almost optimistic compared to most of Indiana and the Midwest.

The Bloomington area has continued its steady, if moderate, population growth. This growth has helped to ease the recessionary pain of local businesses. As Figure 1 shows, population growth has been fairly even across all three geographic "definitions" for Bloomington--the city of Bloomington, Monroe County and the entire Bloomington MSA. The population of the Bloomington MSA has been on the rise thanks to the growth of Monroe County even while Greene County has lost population and Owen County has gained only a nominal number of residents in the last few years. In contrast to the first half of the decade when the city lost population while the rest of the county gained population, both the city of Bloomington and Monroe County have unambiguously grown in the last four years. In the coming years, the population is expected to continue its gradual increase.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The economic growth of the Bloomington MSA slowed, but not as rapidly as most other areas. Real GDP rose by 2.2 percent in 2008, the first year of the recession. Estimates show Bloomington's GDP dropping by about the same percentage in 2009. Moody's Analytics forecasts the rate of economic growth for both 2010 and 2011 to be about 2.5 percent.

Within the Bloomington MSA, different industries have experienced different patterns of growth. A vast majority of the goods-producing sector declined 1.0 percent from 2007 to 2008 while the service-producing sector grew at 1.9 percent (see Figure 2). Estimates show a more sizable drop in manufacturing GDP (-3.9 percent) than in service GDP (-2.4 percent) in 2009. Both sectors have turned around in 2010, however, with the service-producing sector returning to its 2008 level. Manufacturing, on the other hand, is not expected to surpass its 2007 level until 2011.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

While Bloomington will likely register economic growth in GDP for 2010, the forecast for employment is not as positive because job growth typically lags economic growth. Payroll employment rose a fraction in 2008, 0.2 percent, and in 2009 that insignificant gain was reversed with a drop of 0.3...