The Left-Over Problem: The Blind Spot Of The Automotive Portion Of The Advanced Energy Initiative

• Author: Chris Stefan
• Position: JD Candidate, December 2007, at American University Washington College of Law
• Pages: 09

Page 25

Chris Stefan is a JD Candidate, December 2007, at American University Washington College of Law.

In the 2007 State of the Union speech, President Bush discussed his new energy policy. ¹ The President espoused environmental benefits of an increased use of hybrid vehicles and alternative automotive fuels, ² part of the Advanced Energy Initiative. He also proclaimed that this would reduce the reliance of the U.S. economy on oil producing nations abroad. ³ Upon closer inspection, nuances appear that may frustrate both efforts.

There are approximately 250 million vehicles currently in domestic operation. ⁴ This year, an anticipated seventeen million new vehicles will be sold. ⁵ Most of these vehicles are powered by traditional automotive technology. The White House expects that it will take a total of fifteen years for effective transition to new technology. ⁶ Consumers will need to purchase entirely new automobiles as part of this plan, and most will finance those purchases by selling their older vehicles. The environmental benefits to hybrid and alternative fuel utilization are reduced by the existence of downstream markets. ⁷

Legal mechanisms to prevent the older, less efficient vehicles from ending up in developing nations with either non-exis- tent or non-enforced emission standards are not currently in place. ⁸ This means that even if the United States (and/or other developed nations) decrease overall emissions domestically by increasing hybrid and alternative utilization, emissions abroad will still increase (and probably by a higher percent since fuel refining standards are lower in the developing world). This would lead to not only more emissions , but also more pollution of other kinds. Furthermore, alternatives like ethanol and bio- diesel have limited climate benefits, because they also involve carbon emissions and encourage land-use change, a major contributing factor to climate change. ⁹ Hybrids, even highly efficient ones, still require gasoline, and the extraction and refinement process will continue to result in emissions. This transition may be further prolonged because oil producers will continue to explore for new oil fields, and such discoveries lead to lower petroleum prices, which reduce consumer incentives for vehicle replacement.

Another complication is that as these older vehicles help developing nations grow economically, the commercial ties between the United States and these nations would also increase. Widespread ethanol utilization would magnify this effect, because arable land limitations will likely increase agricultural imports (and prices). Sea level rise and increased soil evaporation due to climate change will also intensify the problem. Oil producing nations will maintain their potential to wreak havoc upon the world economy, because developed nations will depend on developing nations for crucial commodities (such as food or fuel), and those developing nations will continue to be dependent on petroleum. The symbiotic relationship that would develop will hinder developed nations like the United States from escaping the influence of current energy geopolitics.

The issue of climate change represents a challenge that goes beyond the borders of any one nation, and the policies of any sovereign power must reflect that reality. The United States must consider potential complications to climate and energy policies prior to enactment. This "Left-Over" problem represents a foundational crack in the automotive wedge of climate stabilization in its current form. ¹⁰ The success of this strategy will require proactive measures to address this potential complication that could unravel the entire plan.

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Endnotes

[1] See Press Release, President Bush Delivers the State of the Union Address (Jan. 23, 2007), available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/ 20070123-2.html (last visited, Feb. 13, 2007) [hereinafter Bush].

[2] Bush, id.

[3] Bush, id.

[4] See Press Release, State of the Union: The Advanced Energy Initiative (Jan. 31, 2006), available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/ 20060131-6.html (last visited Feb. 13, 2007) [hereinafter State of the Union].

[5] State of the Union, id.

[6] State of the Union, id.

[7] See UN Statistical Abstract, Forty-Ninth Issue, United Nations, 2002-2004, at 518 (illustrating that the number of motor vehicles in use increased over time, year by year. In fact, of the 177 nations listed, 29 of them recorded a doubling of motor vehicles in less than a decade. This shows that the total number of vehicles is increasing).

[8] See generally, Santa Barbara County Air Pollution Control District, Old Car Buy Back Program, available at http://www.sbcapcd.org/edu/facts-ocbb.pdf (last visited Feb. 13, 2007) (providing an example of a voluntary buy back program. However, no larger, mandatory program is currently in force).

[9] See United Nations Environmental Programme, CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change, available at http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/10.htm (last visited Feb. 13, 2007) (providing a map showing the location of carbon emissions from land use).

[10] See generally Robert Pacala & Stephen Socolow, Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next Fifty Years with Current Technologies, 305 SCIENCE 968 (2004), available at http://fire.pppl.gov/energy_socolow_ 081304.pdf (last visited Feb. 11, 2007).