Betting on a shore thing: East Carolina University geologists show how shifting sands and the rising sea level can shape a new coastal economy.

• Position: BOOK EXCERPT

Change along our coastline has been a constant since the present system of barrier islands and associated estuaries and their wetlands first formed several thousand years ago. We must, therefore, accept that change will continue into the future. Sea-level rise will continue, perhaps at an increased rate, and storms will surely impact our coast on a regular basis and perhaps with greater intensity than in the past.

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None of this would be of concern were it not for the fact that we have managed our coastal zone as if it were a static system. We have become dependent on large coastal segments that are devoted to agriculture and forest industries, commercial and sport fisheries and a burgeoning tourist industry. These businesses and the fixed structures (roads, bridges, buildings and supporting infrastructure) built on mobile barrier islands, migrating estuaries and wetlands are imperiled because the coastal system will inexorably continue to evolve and migrate.

Thus, we have conflicts. How should we manage the processes of inevitable change? How do we allow coastal marshes to migrate upward and landward with rising sea level? Should a new bridge traverse Oregon Inlet? Should we build a superport in the Cape Fear River? Should terminal groins be built at our inlets and concrete and steel bulkheads be built along the ocean beach? Should ail the ocean shorelines be renourished regularly to provide sandy beaches? Are there adequate sand resources to artificially maintain the beaches and enough economic resources to carry the stabilization projects forward into the near future? Should we close all future inlets when they are opened by storms? How do we maintain a highway down the Outer Banks when the islands narrow to thin strips of sand? How should we protect the natural resources that form the basis of our tourism economy? Can we truly maintain the status quo? And how much will it cost to do so? The questions are endless. Furthermore, the existing conflicts mean that management of our coast is already in a state of crisis, one that will only get worse.

It is inevitable that coastal change will take place and that some of it will be catastrophic. But associated with these changes will be opportunities that we can capitalize on--if we are prepared to do so. Rather than ignore or despair of coastal change, we should plan extensively to adapt to it. Adaptation is the key to the maintenance and future of our coastal-based economy, as well as protecting the natural resources on which that economy is dependent.

Until the mid-20th century, most of the North Carolina barrier islands had a series of isolated villages with subsistence populations that supported small and local tourist and fishing industries. However, in the second half of the 20th century, the coastal barriers evolved into an economic engine that has become a critical cornerstone of North Carolina's overall economy. Billions of tourism dollars are generated annually. North Carolina's 20 coastal counties now have 865,000 residents (10.3% of the state's population). Several oceanfront counties had population growth rates of 75% to 150% from 1970 to 2000.

The barrier islands that were previously dominated by small "mom and pop" beach cottages are now being bulldozed and redeveloped with mansions, high-rise hotels, condominiums anci big-box-store shopping malls surrounded by franchised restaurants and motels. Upsizing has become the basis for the recent spurt in economic growth and development. Similar but more extensive urbanization has already occurred immediately north and south of the North Carolina borders in Virginia Beach and Myrtle Beach, respectively. These coastal ocean cities already employ shoreline hardening and endless beach nourishment in order to protect the economic base. What future is there for such economic machines when sea level rises another 3 to 4 feet or more? Urban evolutionary succession is already in progress in North Carolina, but it has not yet reached the levels that our northern and southern neighbors have attained.

We must ask ourselves two specific questions concerning the future of coastal North Carolina. Do we want, and can we afford, continued urbanization with unlimited high-rise hotels and condominiums, along with the necessary shoreline hardening and continuous beach nourishment? Or do we want a sustainable barrier island/estuarine system with a viable coastal economy that can function and survive during a time of increased rate of sea-level rise and possibly increased intensity of storms?

There are limits to both the growth and the type of development on mobile barrier islands and the associated wetlands and estuaries. To preserve the barrier island-based tourist and recreation economy,

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] as well as the natural resources on which it is based, it is imperative that we start to work on viable, long-term management plans that include selective downsizing and adaptation to a dynamic and rapidly changing natural system. The other portions of the coastal system (the drowned-river estuaries, marsh and swamp forest wetlands and perimeter uplands) must be included in this planning, as they are intimately interlinked with the barrier islands and estuaries in a fully functional coastal system. The possibilities for adaptive coastal management are limited only by our imaginations.

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For the purposes of this discussion, the following vision for the North Carolina coastal system is divided into three components: the northeastern barrier islands (north of Cape Lookout), the southeastern barrier island segments (south of Cape Lookout) and the northeastern portion of North Carolina's northern coastal zone that includes all of the estuarine, riverine and adjacent coastal counties. We name these components the String of Pearls, Islands of Opportunity and Land of Water.

Oregon Inlet Bridge and state Highway 12 were built in the 1950s and 1960s to enhance the economic development of the Outer Banks. Traversing Cape...