Bellwether election? Republicans see signs of a comeback in limited 2009 vote.

• Author: Storey, Tim

The number of legislative seats up in 2009 legislative elections was the lowest of the decade with only two chambers up for grabs in the off-year part of the cycle. Although no chambers changed hands and the overall gains were relatively small, it was a good year for Republican legislative candidates.

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Republicans surged in Virginia, not only winning back the governor's mansion but likely adding six seats in the House of Delegates. That brings their majority to 59-39, with two independents. In one tight race, Republican Ron A. Villanueva, at press time, appeared to win by a scant 16 votes with all precincts reporting and pending a recount as required under Virginia law if requested by the losing candidate.

Voters in New Jersey elected a new Assembly with the GOP cutting into the Democratic majority by one seat. That leaves the chamber at 47 Democrats to 33 Republicans headed into 2010. The Assembly will be getting new leaders even though Democrats held on to the majority because Speaker Joseph Roberts did not seek re-election. There are rumblings of a leadership coup in the New Jersey Senate as well.

A handful of states held special legislative elections to fill vacancies or unexpired terms, and the results had to please the GOP. In the 13 special elections across the country (where an outcome was evident from early returns on Nov. 4), only three seats changed party hands. All of those shifted from Democratic to Republican in Michigan, New Hampshire and Washington.

It is still too early to declare this is a trend pointing to where voters are headed in the 2010 election. If Republicans continue to win special elections into next year, however, it will be an ominous sign for Democrats headed into the last election before redistricting.

Republicans on Nov. 3 scored an obscure victory in the ultimate battle for control of 2010 redistricting in Pennsylvania by taking majority control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Under the redistricting system in the Keystone State, a five-person commission redraws legislative boundaries following the 2010 census. The commission starts with two Republicans and two Democrats who must select a fifth person as a chair. If the four partisan commissioners are evenly split and unable to agree on a fifth person as chair, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court fills the tie-breaking slot, who becomes the member in voting. That scenario could favor the GOP in redistricting.

Republicans narrowed the...