Before the fall: votes cast in November should count most but partisan redistricting has made party primaries of primary importance in Tar Heel politics.

• Author: Hood, John
• Position: Free & Clear - Thom Tillis

Contrary to the expectations of many (and the fervent hopes of a few), N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis got more than enough votes May 6 to clinch the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate without having to compete in a July runoff. The primary battle between Tillis, Cary obstetrician Greg Brannon, Charlotte minister Mark Harris and five other candidates captured the lion's share of public and media attention during this year's primary season.

Tillis's victory obviously was important. I expect the highly competitive race with incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan to be the nation's most expensive Senate race this fall. Adding together candidate, party and independent spending, the contest might rank as one of the most expensive Senate races in North Carolina history (although it probably won't approach the price tag of the 1984 slugfest between Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt, which cost about $61 million in today's currency).

But in another sense, the Senate outcome was far from the most important of the primaries. Tillis does, after all, face a formidable opponent in November. Many other primary victors, Democrats and Republicans alike, have essentially won their offices months before the general election. That's because they are running in congressional or legislative districts too tilted one way or the other to be truly competitive in the fall.

Voters in the 2nd Congressional District, for example, had choices in both primaries. Republican Renee Ellmers won renomination by a comfortable margin in her district, which stretches from southwestern Wake County to Asheboro and down to Fayetteville. On the Democratic side, entertainer Clay Aiken won a close primary against former N.C. Commerce Secretary Keith Crisco, who died six days later (page 5). In November, Ellmers will almost certainly prevail. The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation rates the district as "strongly Republican." The Cook Political Report website rates it as "likely Republican." Aiken will, as he did on American Idol, have to settle for runner-up.

To the west lies the 12th District, which stretches from Charlotte to Greensboro. Drawn as a majority-minority district, it will almost certainly elect a Democrat in November: state Rep. Alma Adams of Greensboro, who defeated two strong Charlotte metro candidates to win her party's nomination. She will face Republican Vince Coakley in the "safe Democratic" district.

Among the state's 13 congressional districts, only four--the 3rd, 7th, 8th...