Battle Diffusion Matters: Examining the Impact of Microdynamics of Fighting on Conflict Termination

• Author: Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott,Gaku Ito
• Published date: 01 May 2020
• Date: 01 May 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719885428
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Battle Diffusion Matters:

Examining the Impact

of Microdynamics

of Fighting on Conflict

Termination

Gaku Ito

1,2

and Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott

3

Abstract

How does diffusion of civil war battles influence conflict termination? Recent

advances in civil war literature have found that battle dynamics shape conflict ter-

mination by affecting the intra-conflict bargaining between disputants. This article

extends the theoretical perspective and argues that how battles diffuse matters in

determining conflict termination. While battlefield dynamics should in principle

reveal previously unavailable private information, the relevance of information-

revealing effect depends on the diffusion patterns of battles. The persistent, and

possibly battle-exacerbated, commitment problem can also alter the prospects of

conflict termination. We test the argument by distinguishing two distinct diffusion

patterns of battles: distant and proximate. The empirical results reveal that distant

diffusion, but not proximate diffusion, of battles makes civil conflicts less likely to

terminate. The analysis also demonstrates that incorporating diffusion dynamics

significantly improves our ability to predict conflict termination.

1

Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihir-

oshima, Japan

2

The Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability, Hiroshima University,

Higashihiroshima, Japan

3

Department of Politics, Derwent College, University of York, York, England

Corresponding Author:

Gaku Ito, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation and The Network for

Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability, Hiroshima University, 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higa-

shihiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan.

Email: gkit@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2020, Vol. 64(5) 871-902

ªThe Author(s) 2019

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0022002719885428

journals.sagepub.com/home/jcr

Keywords

civil wars, conflict resolution, event data, internal armed conflict, negotiation, spatial

analysis

Recent advancesin civil war literature have demonstrated a wide cross-nationalvaria-

tion inconflict geographies(e.g., Beardsley,Gleditsch, and Lo 2015;Buhaug and Gates

2002; O’Loughlinand Witmer 2012; Schutteand Weidmann 2011). Battleactivities in

some conflicts gradually diffuse from the originatinglocations toward geographically

contiguous locations, just like a forest fire, while thebattle locations in other conflicts

spread toward wider areas that have not previouslybeen exposed to violence. Still, in

other conflicts,the conflict-affected zones remain relatively contained and stable.

How do such microlevel conflict processes, then, alter the macro-level outcome

of conflict termination? Traditionally, much of the conflict termination literature has

focused on aggregated and static factors such as state capacity and the existence of

natural resources (e.g., Collier, Hoeffler, and So¨derbom 2004; Fearon 2004). Con-

sequently, the microlevel, dynamic determinants of civil war termination have been

left relatively understudied in the literature, which could lead us to biased conclu-

sions (Balcells and Kalyvas 2014, 1391-1392). In recent years, however, a small but

growing body of literature has increasingly explored the role of microdynamics,

such as battle intensity and locations, in shaping conflict termination (e.g., Greig

2015; Ruhe 2015; Wood and Kathman 2014).

This article joins this emerging debate by exploring not only how the intensity or

relative location of the battle matters but also how different spatiotemporal diffusion

patterns of battles impact the likelihood of conflict termination differently. Follow-

ing previous studies (e.g., Cohen and Tita 1999; Gould 1969), we distinguish two

distinct diffusion patterns, distant and proximate, of civil war battles and link these

microdynamics into conflict termination at the macro-level.

We argue that diffusion of battles shapes conflict termination primarily by affect-

ing the underlying bargaining problems. Firstly, battles reveal necessary information

for the belligerents’ expectations about victory to converge (Slantchev 2003b; Smith

and Stam 2004). This is primarily the case for proximate dif fusion of battles—

resembling conventional warfare tactics with clearer frontlines. In such instances,

the information coming from the battlefield should help disputants resolving the

bargaining problem and therefore have a positive effect on conflict termination.

However, this information becomes uncertain when battles diffuse to geographically

distant locations. Such diffusion of battles partly reflects the rebels’ tactical choice

to employ guerrilla warfare or the use terrorism in civil wars. The spread of battles to

distant and remote locations means that it is harder to collect reliable information

about the opponent (Walter 2009, 253). In such scenario, as opposed to geographi-

cally limited battle zones, the lack of reliable information leaves the information

problem unsolved and the conflict is less likely to terminate.

872 Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(5)

Secondly, the credible-commitment problem also needs to be resolved for ineffi-

cient fighting to end. The information-revealing effect of battle dynamics, however,

does not necessarily resolve the persistent commitment problem. In some situations,

the underlying commitment problem can even be exacerbated, rather than resolved,

by battlefield dynamics. For example, when battlefield outcomes favor the rebels

and the government’s strength fluctuates, costly fighting would make the govern-

ment’s commitment to war-ending agreements by amplifying its incentives to

renege and exploit its recovered bargaining position in the postconflict environment

(cf. Fearon 2004, 295-296). Successful implementation of guerrilla-like foco mili-

tary strategies by the rebel forces would induce such temporary fluctuations of

government capability, spread out battle activities across distant localities, and

partly be captured by battle diffusion across remote locations. In such situations,

battle diffusion can in turn undermine conflict termination through the commitment

channel as well as its limited information-revealing effect.

These twofold bargaining dynamics, as well as the limited prospects of decisive vic-

tories in the face of active fighting, in turn prolong civil conflicts. This effect is, however,

stronger in the cases of distant diffusion of battles whereby such battle dynamics—resem-

bling guerrilla warfare—would not be informative enough to reveal the disputants’ capa-

bility and resolve while not solving or even exasperating the credible-commitment

problem. The impact of proximate diffusion remains indeterminate due to the persistent

commitment problem despite the more informative nature of direct confrontations.

Consider, for example, the seventeen-year civil war in Mozambique. The conflict

was characterized by the rebel group Mozambican National Resistance (RENA-

MO)’s guerrilla tactics across the country. RENAMO’s president Dhlakama

famously said that “our aim is not to win the war militarily ...but to force FRE-

LIMO to accept negotiations” (quoted in Finnegan 1992, 79). This quote highlights

the strategic calculation of the rebels to spread the government’s forces thinly across

the Mozambique’s vast territory, which in the end was a significant contributor for

the prolonged conflict (Weinstein and Francisco 2005).

It is precisely the association between these microdynamics of fighting and

subsequent course of conflict termination, exemplified by this conflict episode, that

we examine systematically in this article. With the help of precisely geocoded and

disaggregated monthly data on civil war battles, we find empirical evidence that

distant diffusion of battle activities, in particular, makes conflict termination less

likely. It is worth noting that incorporating the faster moving diffusion dynamics of

battles in addition to slower moving structural factors substantially improves our

ability to predict conflict termination.

This article contributes to the emerging body of literature about microlevel and

dynamicdeterminants of civil war termination.Balcells and Kalyvas(2014) and Greig,

Mason, andHamner (2018) are correct inpointing out that if conflictdynamics, as well

as static conditions, matterin altering the chances of conflicttermination and outcome,

any studyon civil war terminationremains incomplete withoutexamining how fighting

influences the prospects for domestic peace. An empirical investigation on the likely

Ito and Hinkkainen Elliott 873