Axis of good: the case for remilitarizing Japan.

• Author: Kurlantzick, Joshua

SINCE SEPTEMBER II, THE WORST-case scenarios that intelligence and military planners dream up have become easier for civilians to envision. Here's one to give Americans pause. Imagine that while U.S. troops are deep in the midst of a war to oust Saddam Hussein, Indonesia, a country of more than 200 million people where central authority is about as strong as in Ozzy Osbourne's household, implodes into civil conflict, as it did in the 1960s and almost did again four years ago. The prospect of political and economic instability spreading through Asia justifies an intervention by American troops stationed in Okinawa, Japan.

While this is happening, China takes notice of the increasingly blatant independence rhetoric from Taiwan's government. Since the "One China" policy, which holds that sooner or later Taiwan must rejoin the mainland, is holy writ in China, the government in Beijing decides that it's time to act. Taking advantage of America's distraction, the Chinese prepare to coerce the truculent island. U.S. intelligence satellites pick up unmistakable evidence of the impending assault. In hopes of heading it off, the U.S. sends a portion of its Pacific fleet into the Taiwan Strait, as it did in 1996 after saber-rattling by the Chinese. Soon, the satellites show something even worse to worry about: The unpredictable North Korean regime, sensing an opportunity amidst the chaos to flex its muscles, has begun preparations to launch intermediate-range missiles, which could hit American bases in Japan.

You do not need this kind of worst-case scenario to see that the American military is already spread pretty thin in Asia. Some generals are warning that fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq at the same time could dangerously stretch America's military--despite huge increases in defense spending the administration has approved. Meanwhile, the U.S. already has Special Forces on the ground in the Philippines and Thailand; piracy and terrorism are becoming increasingly serious problems in Southeast Asia; the 2000-2001 detente between North and South Korea is collapsing; and China is modernizing its army.

Asia, like Europe, is of obvious economic importance to the U.S. and the world as a whole. But unlike Europe, it is not connected to any stabilizing political or economic unit. Fortunately, expanding even further the American presence in the region is not the only way to ensure stability. Instead, the U.S. should subtly push Japan to become a more modern military power, joining Europe and America in an "Axis of Good."

To anyone familiar with World War II, the idea of a more militarized Japan may sound creepy, if not downright crazy. That has been the prevailing assumption in Asia for more than 50 years. But the idea that old adversaries can collaborate has obvious precedents around the world. The most recent evidence is the emerging alliance between Russia and the United States. For the last half century, Americans, Japanese, and Asians in general have shared an operational understanding that Japan was a special case: The one former military power that couldn't really ever be trusted with weapons again. Whatever the justice of that initial assumption, it's become outdated. It's time for a fresh look at Japanese rearmament and a fresh conclusion that the Japanese can best advance the cause of peace not as pacifists but as responsible soldiers.

Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier

The Japanese and their neighbors have good reason to feel nervous about the return of the Japanese military. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, the country developed into an industrialized nation, and, fearing that it would be colonized like nearly all its neighbors, organized itself from top to bottom on a quasi-military model. The "quasi" part disappeared in the late 1920s and early 1930s, when a clique of extremely hawkish leaders built a massive army and whipped up sentiment for regional domination. Throughout the 1930s and early 1940s, Japan's Imperial Army conquered a wide swath of territory in East Asia. Either out of ignorance about the probable American reaction or a belief that a showdown with the United States was inevitable, Japan's military thought its chances would be best if it struck first, and so it did, at Pearl Harbor.

From Chinese Manchuria in the north to the Indonesian islands in the south, Asia rings with tales of atrocities during the Japanese occupations of the 1930s and 1940s. Japanese soldiers competed in "contests" to see how many Chinese civilians they could kill, and the Imperial Army conscripted thousands of its subject peoples to serve as "comfort women" providing sexual services to Japanese troops. A...