Avoiding stagnation.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: STATE OF THE NATION

THE 2010 ELECTION will bring the curtain down on Pres. Barack Obama's third act of American liberalism--the first two being FDR's New Deal and LBJ's Great Society. The centerpiece of the third act was ObamaCare; and its future remains uncertain. What is certain is that there will be no more of his ambitious political and economic overhauls. Cap and trade is dead; another bloated stimulus package will not see the light of day; and ending secret ballot union elections hasn't a chance--if it ever did.

Can Obama recover? Presidents Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton were able to withstand a loss of party control of Congress in the first two years of their presidencies and rebound to reelection. Those historical circumstances were far different from today's. After a difficult two years of economic reconversion from a wartime economy and the country aware of a Soviet threat, Truman oversaw the beginning of the postwar prosperity and seized the foreign policy initiative with the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, and the Berlin Airlift; Eisenhower benefited from the mid-1950s boom and was able to find middle ground with the moderate congressional Democrats; Reagan reaped the benefits of his deep tax cuts and Paul Volcker's tight money policy as inflation cooled and the economy came booming back; Clinton, with his extraordinary dexterity, outmaneuvered the Republicans on government shutdowns, and accepted their ideas on welfare reform, capital gains reductions, and a balanced budget. He rode to reelection on an economic boom.

Obama is unlikely to witness the boom years that benefited Truman, Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton after their initial congressional defeats. The atmosphere in Washington has become increasingly toxic with moderates of both parties in dwindling numbers. Republican control of the House of Representatives guarantees little, since Democratic control of the Senate and the presidency will prevent any of their important bills from becoming law. Neither side has any chance of pursuing an ambitious agenda. The next two years can be spent with both sides using the legislative process as a public relations game to position themselves for 2012. In the meantime, the economy may continue to stagnate and deficits will burgeon. The result will be a country with less influence in the world and a public more cynical and angry. Using the next two years just to score political points would be an act of gross...