Averting the next Gulf War: the troop "surge" in Iraq is also a signal to Iran--but stopping Tehran's nukes for good will require a different kind of leverage.

• Author: Clark, Wesley

The world seems headed for a showdown in the Middle East within the next two years over the issue of Iranian nuclear capacity. The stakes are high. On the one hand, there is the emergence of a new nuclear power, whose rhetoric and revolutionary record seem to pose an existential threat to Israel and challenge centuries of Sunni dominance of Islam. On the other hand, there is an explosive set of potential military actions and economic repercussions, which could begin with a sustained air and naval campaign and end with massive economic and political upheavals. The environment is emotionally charged, too, with a triumphalist Iranian government, a failing U.S. military intervention in Iraq, a weakened U.S. president, and severe tensions between Sunni and Shia sects throughout Islam. Heading into a presidential election--and the end of the Bush administration--the ramifications of all this make Democrats, and anyone else seriously forecasting global trends and economic forces, more than a little concerned. Major news magazines like Newsweek and the Economist have featured Iran as the next major crisis.

But just how acute is the problem with Iran? What is the likely outcome? And how should our policy makers and political leaders gain a peaceful resolution? Most importantly, how much leverage, and what kind of leverage, does the United States really have? There is much more than is visible.

If rhetoric is to be believed, the collision is inevitable--a new "beast" is arising in the East. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said that it would be "suicidal for a country to attack Iran," adding that "we must not bend to threats." The rhetoric from Washington has been equally tough, even as the diplomacy plays out in the United Nations. President George W. Bush memorably named Iran as a member of the "axis of evil," and last year he stated unequivocally that Ahmadinejad's hostility toward Israel is a "serious threat. It's a threat to world peace ... I made it clear, I'll make it clear again, that we will use military might to protect our ally Israel."

The perception that we're moving toward a crisis isn't just based on rhetoric. Actions have accompanied the tough language. The Iranians have a serious nuclear program, and the United States is gearing up its response capabilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported major unresolved issues with Iran's nuclear efforts, suggesting that Iran is engaged in a covert effort to produce nuclear weaponry. These issues include unreported design work and acquisition of uranium enrichment centrifuges; experiments with enriching uranium and creating plutonium; hidden nuclear sites; uranium purchases abroad; design work on uranium metal fabrication; and evidence of the presence of highly enriched uranium, secret testing sites, explosive facilities, and interests in warhead designs. Iran, meanwhile, continues to construct new nuclear facilities and is moving forward with the installation of a full-scale uranium enrichment facility--all the while denying that it seeks nuclear weapons.

The timeline of the Iranian effort is unclear. Some evaluations indicate that Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapons capability. Other assessments suggest that they are years away from producing such weaponry. The key is how soon Iran will be able to produce enriched uranium in sufficient quantities. It is generally assumed that Iran will be...