Assessing the Relationship between Economic News Coverage and Mass Economic Attitudes

• DOI: 10.1177/1065912918775248
• Date: 01 December 2018
• Published date: 01 December 2018
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912918775248

Political Research Quarterly

2018, Vol. 71(4) 989 –1000

© 2018 University of Utah

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DOI: 10.1177/1065912918775248

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Article

Economic performance influences important political

phenomena such as presidential approval and election

outcomes (e.g., Hibbs 2000; Kramer 1971; Lewis-Beck

1988; MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson 1992; Tufte

1975). Incumbent presidents and their parties are

rewarded in good economic times and punished in bad

ones. But how, exactly, do citizens assess the economy in

the first place? The simplest explanation is that citizens’

economic well-being causes their economic assessments,

which in turn influence their political opinions and behav-

iors. A second explanation is that news coverage of the

economy, rather than the economy itself, drives citizens’

economic perceptions. And a third possibility is that both

economic news coverage and real economic performance

shape public perceptions of the economy.

Determining whether the media plays a role in the pro-

cess is important because there is no reason to expect that

media coverage will perfectly mirror actual economic

performance. In fact, a substantial body of empirical evi-

dence argues that news coverage of the economy does not

always track economic performance (e.g., Blood and

Phillips 1995; Doms and Morin 2004; Goidel and Langley

1995). Sometimes news coverage will be more positive

than economic performance warrants, and often, it will be

more negative (Soroka 2006). If citizens’ economic

assessments respond to news coverage (either instead of

or in addition to responding to actual economic perfor-

mance), the political rewards and punishments they con-

fer on politicians and parties may be biased. This, of

course, was George H. W. Bush’s concern in his bid for

reelection in 1992, when he claimed the economy was

performing at a notably higher level than the media was

giving him credit for (Hetherington 1996).

Despite the importance of distinguishing the effects of

actual economic performance and news coverage of the

economy, doing so is difficult. Published research demon-

strates that news coverage of the economy predicts eco-

nomic attitudes (Casey and Owen 2013; De Boef and

Kellstedt 2004; Doms and Morin 2004; Fan and Cook 2003;

Goidel and Langley 1995; Goidel et al. 2010; Hollanders

and Vliegenthart 2011; Nadeau et al. 1999; Soroka 2006;

Soroka, Stecula, and Wlezien 2015). But there are reasons to

question whether the evidence reflects a causal relationship.

As observed by Soroka, Stecula, and Wlezien (2015):

The fact that media variables are statistically significant

predictors of public perceptions need not mean that news

coverage actually causes those perceptions. It may be that

media measures just do a very good job of capturing the

economy itself, better even than particular economic indicators.

(Soroka, Stecula, and Wlezien 2015, 471)

This article attempts to estimate the effect of economic

news on economic attitudes to assess whether media cov-

erage has a distinct effect on economic attitudes above

775248PRQXXX10.1177/1065912918775248Political Research QuarterlyBoydstun et al.

research-article2018

1University of California, Davis, USA

2Pennsylvania State University, State College, USA

Corresponding Author:

Amber E. Boydstun, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.

Email: aboydstun@ucdavis.edu

Assessing the Relationship between

Economic News Coverage and Mass

Economic Attitudes

Amber E. Boydstun1, Benjamin Highton1, and Suzanna Linn2

Abstract

Do economic performance and economic news coverage influence public perceptions of the economy? Efforts to

assess the effects are hampered by the interrelationships among the variables. In this paper, we bring to bear a more

careful accounting of available economic variables than previous studies have used. We find that both media tone and

economic attitudes are strongly related to actual economic performance. Moreover, after taking into account the

economy itself, a substantial relationship between media tone and economic attitudes persists. Given that economic

attitudes influence a wide variety of political outcomes, this finding carries important normative and political significance.

Keywords

economic performance, economic news, media coverage, consumer sentiment, economic attitudes