Assessing the implication of green revolution for food security in Pakistan: A multivariate cointegration decomposition analysis

• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Author: Muhammad Nouman,Dilawar Khan,Ihtisham Ul Haq,Nabeela Naz,Bibi Taharat E. Zahra,Arif Ullah
• Date: 01 December 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2758

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Assessing the implication of green revolution for food security

in Pakistan: A multivariate cointegration decomposition

analysis

Muhammad Nouman

1

| Dilawar Khan

1

| Ihtisham Ul Haq

1

| Nabeela Naz

1

|

Bibi Taharat E. Zahra

1

| Arif Ullah

2

1

Department of Economics, Kohat University

of Science & Technology, Kohat, Pakistan

2

Department of Economics & Business

Administration, University of Education,

Lahore (Faisalabad Campus), Faisalabad,

Pakistan

Correspondence

Dilawar Khan, Department of Economics,

Kohat University of Science & Technology,

Kohat 26000, Pakistan.

Email: dilawarmkd@yahoo.com

Food security is a growing concern around the world and the agricultural sector plays

a significant role in solving this problem to a large extent. In particular, the developing

world has been highly affected by the food security challenge due to its large popula-

tion since the last few decades. This study explored the impact of the green

revolution on food security in Pakistan using annual time series data over the period

1975–2017. The findings of the Johansen co-integration and F-bounds tests found

that the green revolution positively and significantly improves food security in

Pakistan. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag model explored that agri-

cultural machinery, agricultural credit, use of fertilizers, high quality seeds, fuel con-

sumption and rise in area under cereal crops are the significant factors of the green

revolution, which improve the food security in Pakistan. This study recommends that

policies must be designed to guarantee farmers' access to quality production inputs.

KEYWORDS

co-integration analysis, food security, green revolution, Pakistan, variance decomposition

analysis

1|INTRODUCTION

Food security comprises the population's physical, social, economic, and

environmental accessto balanced and sufficientfood, as well as drinking

water. Physical access refers to the accessibility of food when required,

economic access depends on people's purchasing power and employ-

ment level, social, and environmental access depends on different fac-

tors, for example, justice, and sanitation (Swaminathan, 2010). The

green revolution is relatedto the positive progressof high-yielding vari-

eties (HYVs) of crops, for example, wheat,rice, and maize. Water avail-

ability, better seed quality, advanced agricultural technology, and

multiple cropping have significantly contributed to the remarkable pro-

gress of the agricultural sector. Mainly, wheat and rice producers

improvedthese factors in the early 1960sin Asia and Latin America and

this was thestart of the green revolution (Matsonet al., 1997).

The world made enormous improvement in the production of

food and fiber in the second half of the 20th century, which reduced

the proportion of the world's hungry population. The population dur-

ing this period more than doubled, which brought a serious drop in

the level of food security (Godfray et al., 2010). To face the alarming

challenge of food security, world farmers have started to implement

advanced and innovative agricultural techniques in agriculture, there-

fore technological innovation in agriculture has become the most cru-

cial factor to raise the level of food security globally. Several world

economies have achieved desirable results from their rural sector after

employing the latest agricultural techniques under the phenomenon

of the green revolution. Breeding rust-resistant varieties of wheat at

the International Corn and Wheat Improvement Center (IMWIC) in

Mexico has protected 117 million acres of land under cultivation of

wheat from wheat rust. As a result, food security for 60–120 million

families has been guaranteed (Dubin & Brennon, 2009). The agricul-

tural practices of HYVs introduced by the green revolution also

increased the world's production of food crops along with the

increased calorie intake of the global population, which ensured food

Received: 19 August 2020 Revised: 9 August 2021 Accepted: 30 August 2021

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2758

J Public Affairs. 2022;22(Suppl. 1):e2758. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 1of15

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2758