Assessing the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: Evidence from major crop yields

• Author: Raju Guntukula
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2040
• Published date: 01 February 2020
• Date: 01 February 2020

ACADEMIC PAPER

Assessing the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture:

Evidence from major crop yields

Raju Guntukula

School of Economics, University of Hyderabad,

Hyderabad, India

Correspondence

Raju Guntukula, School of Economics,

University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad 500046,

India.

Email: rajug@uohyd.ac.in

Abstract

This study empirically examines the effect of climate change on the yields of primary

food as well as non-food crops in India. The present study uses annual time-series

data of seven major crops such as rice, wheat, pulses, rapeseeds and mustard, cotton,

sugarcane, and groundnut for 58 years (1961–20 17) to assess the influence climatic

variables namely rainfall, maximum, and minimum temperatures on crop yields. The

empirical findings of the study indicate that a significant effect on major crop yields

from rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, but the level of impact varies

across the crops studied. A rise in rainfall has an adverse effect on food crops except

for pulses, however it has a positive relationship with non-food crops throughout the

study period. Further, the average maximum temperature has a positive influence on

food and non-food crops excluding rice. The average minimum temperature has an

adverse impact on non-food crops, but it has a positive association with food crops.

The adverse effects of climatic factors on crop yields may be likely to pose severe

implications for food and nutritional security. Conclusively, this study recommends

taking adaptation activities to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.

JEL CLASSIFICATION

O13; C32; Q18; Q51; Q54

1|INTRODUCTION

There is an increasing scientific agreement that natural and anthropo-

genic activities have made a significant contribution to rising atmo-

spheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (Pachauri & Meyer,

2014). The surge of greenhouse gases has enhanced the natural

greenhouse effect, which in turn has caused more extensive warming

of the earth's atmosphere and surface (Tol & De Vos, 1998). An

increased warming has resulted in the intensity and frequency

extreme climatic situations causing climate change (Agba, Adewara,

Adama, Adzer, & Atoyebi, 2017). Though it is debatable about the

sources climate change, the evidence of alterations in rainfall, temper-

atures, and extreme climatic events is unquestionable (Nath & Mandal,

2018). Furthermore, there are numerous of mechanisms by which

“global climate change”may affect human prosperity. The most direct

and indeed most considerable impact may come through agriculture

particularly food production (Kaufmann & Snell, 1997). Likewise,

among several affected by climate change agriculture is considered to

be the most vulnerable sector because of its fragile relationship with

environment (Raju & Phanindra, 2018). Globally, changes in tempera-

tures and rainfall patterns are likely to have major effects on agricul-

tural output (Lobell, Schlenker, & Costa-Roberts, 2011). For instance,

extreme temperature frequency and intensity are anticipated to

increase, which can destruct food production systems (Deryng, Con-

way, Ramankutty, Price, & Warren, 2014). The occurrences of both

floods and droughts are in the same way expected to increase in

intensity and frequency in the coming years as a result of climate

change, which could reduce crop productivity (Lesk, Rowhani, &

Ramankutty, 2016).

Although climate variability and change is a universal phenome-

non, however, the adverse effects and climate-induced vulnerability

Received: 16 September 2019 Accepted: 22 October 2019

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2040

J Public Affairs. 2020;20:e2040. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1of7

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2040