Assessing the Effects of COVID-19-Related Stay-at-Home Orders on Homicide Rates in Selected U.S. Cities

• Author: Gregg R. Murray,Kim Davies
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10887679221108875
• Published date: 01 November 2022
• Date: 01 November 2022
• Subject Matter: Special Issue Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10887679221108875

Homicide Studies

2022, Vol. 26(4) 419 –444

© 2022 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/10887679221108875

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Special Issue Article

Assessing the Effects of

COVID-19-Related Stay-at-

Home Orders on Homicide

Rates in Selected U.S. Cities

Gregg R. Murray1 and Kim Davies1

Abstract

Most U.S. states issued stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) to limit the spread of

COVID-19 in 2020. These orders required people to remain in their residences

except when undertaking essential activities. While SAHOs are a powerful public

health tool against infectious diseases, they can have significant social and economic

consequences. Grounded in general strain and routine activities theories and using

interrupted time series analyses, this study assesses the effects of SAHOs on

homicide rates in 10 U.S. cities. Substantive results suggest SAHOs were associated

with changes in homicide rates in theoretically identifiable ways.

Keywords

COVID-19, general strain theory, homicide, lockdowns, pandemic, routine activities,

stay-at-home orders

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic and government reactions to it created stressful living condi-

tions as well as disrupted normal activities across the United States and the world.

There is no doubt that the threat of COVID-19 infection and the death of friends and

relatives caused extreme hardship for many. Indeed, previous infectious disease out-

breaks have been associated with depression, anxiety, panic attacks, and suicidality

(Xiang et al., 2020). By April 30, 2020, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and

1Augusta University, GA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Gregg R. Murray, Department of Social Sciences, Augusta University, 1120 15th Street, Allgood Hall

N225, Augusta, GA 30912-0004, USA.

Email: gmurray@augusta.edu

1108875HSXXXX10.1177/10887679221108875Homicide StudiesMurray and Davies

research-article2022

420 Homicide Studies 26(4)

Prevention (CDC, 2021) reported more than 60,000 cumulative deaths in the U.S. from

COVID-19 with about 30,000 new cases per day. Globally, governments often took

dramatic steps in response to the disease (e.g., Carr et al., 2022; Murray & Rutland,

2022). Impacts from the pandemic and related government responses were widely felt

with as much as a third of the world’s population under some type of lockdown or quar-

antine by April of 2020 (Kaplan et al., 2020; Walters, 2020). Within the U.S., the threat

of infection and death led most state governments to issue stay-at-home orders (SAHOs)

to limit the spread of COVID-19 in 2020 (Murray & Murray, forthcoming). These

orders typically required people to remain isolated in their homes except when under-

taking essential activities like acquiring food and medical assistance.

While SAHOs are a powerful tool against the spread of infectious diseases, they

severely affect the way most people live their lives. In the first few months following

U.S. governors’ issuance of SAHOs, over 20 million people filed initial jobless claims

(Morgan, 2020), more than 50 million children lost access to their schools and class-

rooms, and nearly 300 million people, almost 90% of the country, were subjected to

mandates to stay home for several weeks (Norwood, 2020). Public opinion surveys

confirm the concern and disruption many people would expect in the face of such a

serious threat of disease and restrictive government response. A Monmouth University

(2020) survey of U.S. adults nationwide conducted April 3 to 7, 2020, showed 50% of

respondents were very concerned and 33% were somewhat concerned that someone in

their family would become seriously ill from the coronavirus (margin of error ±3.5%).

In the same survey, 62% of respondents said the coronavirus outbreak had had a major

impact on their lives and 27% said a minor impact.

One area of social life during the pandemic that has garnered attention is crime.

There were great concerns about the potential for increases in crime and some data

indicated increases for intimate partner violence (Silverio-Murillo et al., 2020; Walters,

2020). However, in many places such as San Francisco, overall crime fell (Shayegh &

Malpede, 2020) as did specific crimes in many places, such as robberies in Mexico

City (Balmori de la Miyar et al., 2021; Estévez-Soto, 2021). Early data reported by

Rosenfeld et al. (2021) on a sample of 34 cities indicated homicide rates were 30%

higher than in 2019. Yet, other researchers indicated no increases in homicide such as

Ashby (2020), who reported no increases in serious assaults including homicide in 16

large U.S. cities in the early months of 2020, and Campedelli et al. (2020), who found

no increases in conjunction with containment policies in Los Angeles in March of

2020.

While some researchers simply focused on the data, others looked for theoretical

explanations to interpret the changes seen in crime rates. Many relied on strain theory,

which suggests that crime is the result of negative emotions caused by negative events

in people’s lives (Agnew, 1992). The pandemic and SAHOs increased strain for a large

percentage of the population with income and employment disruptions, health impacts,

uncertainty, and abrupt changes to daily life. This suggests that homicides should

increase following a SAHO. Others relied on routine activities theory to explain the

many changes in crime that were being seen in the data. Routine activities theory is

logical with its proposition that crime is the result of motivated offenders, suitable