Asia: skepticism about optimism.

• Author: Buzan, Barry

Would it not be marvelous if the inhabitants of Pacific-Asia had not only invented Won Ton and the Walkman, but also invented a formula for peace? James Richardson, in his thoughtful critique of those such as ourselves who suggest that Pacific Asian peace and stability is at risk, argues that the governments of Pacific Asia can trust in their culture and economic interdependence to prevent serious instability or conflict. He thinks that Cassandras such as Buzan and Segal are too steeped in European traditions to understand that people in Pacific Asia are not subject to the habits of international behavior that seem to apply everywhere else in the world.

Professor Richardson rejects the idea that European history has any lessons to offer for the rising new powers in Asia. He places much emphasis on the judgment that Pacific Asian culture has evolved new ways of settling disputes. He talks of informal dialogue, consensus building and non-governmental networks as if they replace or bind relations between states. All we need are "habits of dialogue." But it takes a huge dose of amnesia to forget the ways in which Pacific Asian culture settled disputes not too long ago. We still read of newly uncovered details of Japan's atrocities in its Asian colonies, Chinese human wave tactics as late as the war with Vietnam in 1979, or Indonesian brutality to opponents of the he unparalleled brutality of the Khmer Rouge?

The concept of unique Pacific Asian notions of dispute settlement is a little like the trendy talk of Confucian social values. Not too long ago people used to see Confucianism as a reason for China's failure to develop. So-called Confucian values (which are little different from Victorian values) interact with other aspects of policy to produce a given outcome. When Confucian values are mixed with open markets and greater political liberalism, then the result is more growth and prosperity. But mix them with Marxism/Leninism and you get Pol Pot, Kim II Sung and the Cultural Revolution. What matters is the mix. Neither Confucian values nor informal dialogue is a stand-alone solution.

But perhaps now that Pacific Asians have moved from Marxist to market economics, the logic of economic interdependence has made arms racing and power rivalry less sensible and less likely. On balance, it is probably better for Pacific Asian stability that economic interdependence is growing, for it does give more people a stake in peace and may well lead to...