Así será 2014.
Author | Guti |
Position | Pron |
[ILUSTRACIÓN OMITIR]
El 2014 se ve bien para América Latina. Crecerá 3,5 por ciento, un poco más que el año pasado. Las siete elecciones presidenciales del año no afectarán este panorama y el escenario político de la región no tendrá mayores modificaciones, ni movimientos radicales hacia los extremos.
Habrá tal vez más protestas de la nueva clase media que sentirá que las promesas de prosperidad no llegan con la velocidad ofrecida por los políticos, pero los capitales no se irán de la región porque los retornos seguirán siendo más altos que los del primer mundo.
A pesar de las presiones de revaluación será un buen año para las multilatinas. En los últimos cinco años, las más grandes de estas empresas crecieron dos veces más rápido que sus países de origen y, como se señala en esta edición, en 2014 aumentarán sus ventas más que en el año anterior.
Habrá más cosas buenas. Por ejemplo, el mercado digital crecerá aceleradamente. La región ya tiene la población de internet con el mayor crecimiento del mundo: 21 por ciento anual según cifras de la consultora IMS, frente a 1 por ciento en Estados Unidos. Además el comercio electrónico crece 41 por ciento en la región, mientras que lo hace a una tasa de 13 por ciento en Estados Unidos.
Los volúmenes de comercio todavía son reducidos, pero los casos milagrosos abundan. El grupo Pão de Açúcar, por ejemplo, aumenta sus ventas en uno de sus sitios online en más de 60 por ciento por mes.
Pero no todo es tan maravilloso. Para que los países mantengan este ritmo, sus mercados internos y sus clases medias deben fortalecerse. Por eso deben hacer esfuerzos para reducir la pobreza de forma permanente con la creación de empleo y de oportunidades para acceder a los activos productivos. Por eso preocupa tanto el caso de Venezuela que tiene la inflación más alta del...
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