The recovery finally has arrived--for real: the American economy sports a sleek new look as it shakes off the shackles of recession.

• Author: Challenger, John A.
• Position: Economics

IT LOOKS AS IF 2004 will be the year when the economic recovery actually feels like a recovery, as companies will introduce creative and highly valued perks; the Internet-driven New Economy will reestablish itself; alternative job categories will replace those moving offshore; and employers will embrace and increase diversity.

The economy has been expanding since November, 2001, but for many who have remained jobless, it probably has not felt like ii. That will change as this year progresses. The stock market is reviving and gross domestic product and productivity are growing at the fastest pace in 20 years. This will prove to be the catalyst that helps ignite job creation.

The driving forces behind the unfolding trends include the aging population, technological breakthroughs, pending labor shortages, and globalization, although these factors also could have some negative consequences. For instance, new technology and globalization could eliminate jobs in the U.S. However, the positive impact of these developments will far outweigh the negatives.

The ongoing changes will create budding opportunities and open doors for those who historically have had a difficult time finding jobs and/or climbing the corporate ladder. Already, an increasing number of companies are seeking and retaining older workers who, as employers have learned, often are more productive than their younger counterparts.

Women also will reap the rewards of approaching shifts in the workplace, which will require highly educated, tech savvy individuals who can speak and write more than one language. Women already are outpacing men in terms of earning bachelor's degrees. By 2010, they will represent 60% of college graduates. Additionally, females are two-and-a half times more likely to study foreign languages in college.

Following are 15 predictions for 2004:

1. Employers will increase diversity. The nation's first-and second-generation immigrants hold the key to the U.S.'s long-term economic strength morn than ever before. Understanding the culture of other countries, especially in the new economic zones, will be crucial to job growth at home. Much of the job creation during this economic cycle will not take place stateside, but in places like China, India, and the Philippines, beneficiaries of our outsourcing and a surging global economy. In the now New Economy, the biggest winners in the job market will be the New Americans, highly educated, with roots in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, matching the diversity of the increasingly global marketplace.

2. More women will move into the executive suite. The gap between male and female managers and executives will expand due to the same technology that is leading to surprisingly strong gains in productivity. Government statistics reveal that for the first time since tracking began, women outnumber men in higher paying, white collar managerial and professional specialty occupations. The effect will be a self-perpetuating cycle of workplace gains for women. As a rapidly growing number moves into upper management roles. those further down the ladder will reap the benefits by increasingly being targeted for advancement.

3. Perks will make a comeback. As economic expansion takes hold companies will focus heavily on containing costs, so perks will be of the low-cost variety. These will be extremely popular among workers, but cost the company very little. One example: pet insurance. Employees pay the premiums, but at the bulk rote negotiated by the employer. The sole expense to the company is that of organizing the program.

4. More businesses will tell customers, "Do it yourself." We rapidly are becoming a self-serve nation as technology allows companies to replace people with machines. The results will be seen in the growing number of stores where human cashiers are replaced by self-service checkout lanes. Stores cannot entirely eliminate the human element, so jobs will shift to other areas such as customer service, technical support, maintenance, and security.

5. Older workers tapped to share experience. The biggest job opportunity for the growing ranks of would-be retirees may be in employee training. As large numbers of baby boomers become eligible for retirement. many will be looking for ways to extend their working careers in order to offset losses to annuities. Employers, seeking ways to avoid skill shortages, will retain their older workers to pass along knowledge and benefit younger staff.

6. The New Economy will make a comeback. Those who thought the dot.com collapse was the death knell for the New Economy may find out the hard way that it...