Iraq: what will the next president do? American officers on the ground in Iraq aren't sure that any of the candidates have realistic plans for how to move forward.

• Author: Gordon, Michael R.

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For the past year, I have led a double Life, dividing my time between military reporting in Iraq and tracking the campaign debate at home.

The American officers I met in Iraq think that white significant progress has been made, a long and difficult job stilt ties ahead--an assumption that has frequently been missing on the campaign trail.

Here at home, the politicians seem more intent on addressing public impatience with an open-ended commitment in Iraq, either by promising prompt withdrawal (the Democrats) or by suggesting that victory may be near (the Republicans).

"You have to grade all the candidates between a D-minus and an F-plus," says Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "The Republicans are talking about this as if we have won and as if Iraq is the center of the war on terrorism, rather than Afghanistan and Pakistan and a host of movements in 50 other countries.

"The Democrats talk about this as if the only problem is to withdraw and the difference is over how quickly to do it."

On the ground with the troops, it's clear that a major change was made last year--not so much the addition of 30,000 troops in the "'surge," but a shift to a counter-insurgency strategy focused on protecting Iraqi civilians from sectarian violence.

But counterinsurgency efforts take time, and that drives much of the military thinking about the future, even as Persian it complicates the campaign debate at home. American officers foresee a continued need for U.S. combat forces--and a more gradual shift of responsibilities to Iraqi forces than many of the candidates.

"it is about mitigating risk and not repeating mistakes of the past," says one senior American officer in Iraq.

The politicians suggest they can produce faster results. But those who criticize President Bush for failing to ask the tough questions about what might happen the day after the fall of Saddam Hussein often don't fully address what might happen the day after the U.S. military leaves.

Senator Hillary Clinton advocates that the U.S. rapidly draw down forces white retraining a residual force to fight terrorists, deter Iranian...