Anderson forecast 2009.

• Author: Ritchey, Barry C.

October 2008

What a difference a year makes. Profound changes occurred between the fall of 2007 and the fall of 2008 that will likely change the landscape of our economic world. Nationally, we have gone through one of the most profound economic challenges in history.

A year ago, the city of Anderson was building momentum in its attempt to redefine and rebuild its economy. The Chamber of Commerce had awarded the city its City of the Year Award, Forbes had ranked Anderson as a top 100 city for business climate, and the Rotary had also given recognition to the city. Momentum looked positive and there was room for optimism as Anderson took the first few steps of the long journey toward its economic reconstruction. Voters spoke in Anderson's last election, removing the previous mayor. Turnover in leadership is a difficult obstacle to overcome in maintaining momentum. There is some truth in the old adage that you never change horses in midstream. It may be that the new leadership will be successful; however, it takes time to establish a new administration.

A year ago, the housing market in Anderson was extremely weak by historical comparison. This year's national events in financial markets have taken a bad situation in Anderson and made it worse. Credit markets have tightened lending and the excess supply of housing in Anderson has not dwindled. The threat of falling national income has surely been another factor in local economic performance. It is not surprising that the obstacles that faced the city a year ago remain. The profound sense of local economic loss in Anderson has been matched nationally as well.

From beginning to end, the Anderson rebuilding process will face obstacles. In our case, the most imposing obstacle is that of improving local education. Economic issues all take a back seat to rebuilding our local schools. Success at the local school builds the foundation for success with the local economy.

A recent article in the Herald Bulletin points out some of the symptoms of poor school performance. From 2007 to 2008, Anderson city schools lost another 378 students. Over the past twenty years, the school system has lost over 3,000 students. While part of this loss can be attributed to demographic changes, a significant portion of the loss can be attributed to families responding to the weak performance of our local schools. Tuition transfers and enrollment in alternative charter schools have increased the drain of students. Another...