Anchorage's recession recovery is slow ... but real.

• Author: Richardson, Jeffrey
• Position: Economic Review & Forecast

If you thought Anchorage still had that boarded-up look despite a recent upswing in economic indicators, you're right. Things are getting better, experts say. But the banking and housing sectors so deeply shaken by the recession of 1986-87 are still staggering under their losses. For them, full recovery of vigor and momentum is months, even years, away.

And though evidence of Anchorage's improved economic health is real enough, optimism should be weighed against the realization that the city's improving economic climate stems in large measure from the percolating dollars spent by Exxon to clean up its oil spill.

According to the city's demographer, Mike Breedlove, growth in the job market continues to fuel a rebounding population depleted by the collapsing construction sector in 1986. Jobs are growing; population is growing. They go hand in hand. Generally, jobs are creating the growth. Even construction employment is up over year-ago levels,' he says.

Adds Breedlove, 'All sectors of the economy appear to be rising.' Between mid-1988 and mid-1989, Anchorage employment grew by 5.2 percent, while population gained 1.3 percent. From mid- 1989 to mid- 1990, Breedlove points to a 4.5 percent growth in employment. At the same time, the city's population grew another 3.7 percent.

Breedlove projects that trend will continue, noting that growth in the last year is comparable to that which occurred from 1983-84, just prior to the banner year of 1985. Breedlove feels population growth could exceed employment growth in 1991.

But if you're still not convinced and keep making sidelong glances at all those sale signs and vacant lots, don't take his word for it. Consider these omens from the past year:

After cutting the number of teachers in the wake of state budget cuts, the Anchorage School Board voted to hire 53 teachers for 1991 when a 3.4 percent increase in enrollment for 1990 caught administrators by surprise.

Telephone hookups in the first half of the year were running 3.8 percent higher than in 1989.

Employment in the trade and service sector overall gained nearly 6.5 percent, while retail trade employment alone posted growth of 3.71 percent, according to data published by the Anchorage Economic Development Corp.

On the heels of the new cargo-handling facility erected by Federal Express, United Parcel Service was awarded air cargo rights in Japan, a crucial milestone in its Anchorage expansion efforts.

Even in the area of real estate, housing...