Anchorage forecast: expect growth later this year.

• Author: Popp, Bill
• Position: ECONOMY

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2009 was a brutal year for the global economy with wealth and jobs seeming to disappear overnight. Alaska did not escape unscathed, but as the dust settled, Alaska fared far better than most, which our recap for 2009 will show. That's not to say Anchorage didn't feel some of pain. Just ask businesses in tourism, construction and transportation and you'll find examples of the recession's effects on Anchorage. In the end though, the Anchorage economy was flat and "flat is good." This will continue in 2010 with Anchorage feeling a little more pain this year, but likely returning to jobs growth late in 2010.

Not only is this the Anchorage Economic Development Corp.'s viewpoint, but also it's based on the results of the recent AED C Business Confidence Index survey. Anchorage businesses also think there is reason to be a little more confident in the economy. So, what were the results for 2009 and what is the outlook for 2010?

EMPLOYMENT OVERVIEW

Last year marked Anchorage's first year of job loss in 20 years with average 2009 employment in Anchorage about 300 jobs below the 2008 average.

The year started off well with January 2009 employment showing 3,600 jobs above January 2008, but by mid-year, employment data showed no year-over-year employment gains and continued the decline with December 2009 showing 2,500 fewer jobs than December 2008.

In must be noted, however, 2009 employment numbers are subject to revision and will not be finalized by the Department of Labor until later this spring when significant revisions have been made in the past.

Overall, 2009 was a good year for jobs in Anchorage, with a less than 0.2 percent decrease in average jobs.

Looking ahead to this year, AEDC forecasts a loss of 1,200 jobs in 2010, an 0.8 percent reduction in total average jobs from 2009. Although more jobs will be lost in 2010 than in 2009, the losses will continue to be very modest at less than 1 percent with AEDC forecasting a return to modest jobs growth in the second half of 2010.

HEALTH CARE

Anchorage's health care sector could be considered Anchorage's rising star. In 2009, 500 new jobs were added, a 3.3 percent increase over 2008, with AED C expecting continued growth in 2010. AEDC expects the health care sector to add 200 jobs in 2010 with continued growth in the future. As our population grows and ages, demand for both general and specialty services will continue to increase, requiring more workers in health care.

GOVERNMENT

Although government employment increased by 600 jobs in 2009, with employment in Anchorage reaching 31,100 jobs, it is expected to plateau in 2010. In contrast to declining federal employment from 2004 through 2007, 2008 began to show growth, rising to 9,500 jobs in 2009.

Locally, the Municipality of Anchorage expects layoffs of about 70 employees in 2010, with further...