AN UNCHARTED PATH: CANADA-U.S. RELATIONS IN THE TRUMP ERA.

• Author: Heyman, Bruce
• Position: Proceedings of the 43rd Canada-United States Law Institute Annual Conference: Can the United States and Canada Cooperate on Climate Change?

ABSTRACT: This is the annual Canada-U.S. Law Institute Lecture given by Bruce Heyman at Western University on September 24, 2019. The United States is withdrawing from its traditional role in the world, creating opportunities and threats for our allies and adversaries that we are just beginning to come to terms with. Bruce Heyman poses important questions for Canada in light of this: What are the implications if Donald Trump is re-elected and these extreme behaviors persist? How will this impact Canada and the values we historically held together? Will Canada move ahead without its next door neighbor--and if so, what are the risks that go with that?

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So thank you, thanks for your hospitality and convincing me to make this journey to a town that of all the cities I've visited this is my first stop here and I'm really enjoying the--the last couple of days. To the Dean, thank you for having this event here at the law school. And to the Canada-U.S. Law Institute, thank you again for inviting me.

Okay.

So today, um, I'm probably going to provocatively leave you with more questions than answers. But clearly that's my intent in this conversation today. So here's what I want to do to get started. We're going to do something that we generally don't do on a daily basis but we're going to time travel. So all of us, position yourself and propel yourself into the future now. And we're going to fasten our seatbelts and arrive one day after the U.S. elections in November of 2020.

Or should I say the re-election. Donald Trump is re-elected President of the United States.

Yup. He lost by 5 million votes but again won that Electoral College. People across the United States are stunned. Can't believe it. Many Democrats thought they had this one. They're depressed, and yet angry at the exact same time.

After a couple of dozen Democratic candidates for president, Democrats are kind of lost, looking for maybe a new path. We're a country divided. We were divided going into this election and now the stresses of the division will be exacerbated.

At home calls for impeachment rise once again. And this time the speaker is on board but the likelihood of the Senate convicting him as still quite small.

Institutions in the U.S. government are under stress. They've been under stress but they're now crumbled as people who contemplated leaving in 2019 and 20 throughout the government stayed on, anticipating the government would have changed. Whatever damage you thought was done in that first term, well now the path is becoming more permanent. Thousands of U.S. government employees now preparing resignation letters. Many positions, like in the previous four years, will remain unfilled and those that are occupied will be occupied by Trump loyalists.

With defending of government agencies, the functioning of many normal services will be delayed. To some it may even mirror the Eastern-bloc pre-Berlin Wall type of democracy. Bureaucracy. Capitals around the world, with only a few exceptions, are in shock once again. The first Trump victory was deemed an aberration, but now with the Trump re-election it's clear America is and will continue to be a very different place.

Several departments of the U.S. government will be effectively closed. One department that stands out most notably is the EPA--the Environmental Protection Agency. After the previous year of dismantling environmental regulations from prior administrations, the Trump White House has turned over to corporations for corporate self-policing in the spirit of regulation reduction.

By the way, the White House also promises to continue to take funds from closed agencies and departments to fund that wall down at the Mexico border. You know, the President had promised Mexicans would pay for it. So this first new day, he decides once again to put tariffs on Mexico to help pay for that wall, kind of as a post-election fundraiser.

On the world stage, any hope of America's reversion to the global protector of liberal democracy, small L, small D, is dashed. No longer a strong guiding force for good offsetting the extreme, America has become the extreme in an inwardfocused, xenophobic, unilateralist nation, and will continue along that path, unfortunately, for the foreseeable future.

The fall. Let's talk about that. So much of this second term, foreign policy will be focused on President Trump's life-long beliefs. You know those beliefs that every country in the world has and continues to take advantage of the U.S.A.

(Laughter).

Well we're not going to take it anymore, says Donald Trump. So specifically he begins to go back on his long-expressed concerns that trade is stacked against the U.S.A. and promises extensive new tariffs on the basis of national security. Oh he also declares NATO, any nation not immediately meeting the 2% spending of GDP on defence will either be kicked out of the alliance or we're going to slap some new tariffs on them so they can pay for it. Simultaneously the master deal maker, maybe even proposed Russia join NATO, especially after he successfully invited them back to the G7 at his G7 meeting at his resort.

(Laughter.)

Oil drilling will soon begin off the coast of Alaska in the Arctic. And the President proposes perhaps even additional drilling as a result of Mideast continued tensions--maybe even in the Great Lakes, where he believes, with no scientific evidence whatsoever, that large amounts of oil exist.

Why should I even begin and have this conversation in this way? Why should we think this way? Looking into the future is really hard. Just forecasting the weather has its limitations. But predicting political winds are even that much more challenging.

Yes, in some ways this is completely hypothetical. In some ways it's extreme. But in other ways, it's entirely possible.

We can just imagine the ways of Trump re-election would impact climate, the environment, commerce, energy, military, intelligence, homeland security, international affairs. The list can go on and on and on. But here's the reality. Most presidents running for re-election for the last 100 years have won. Those that aren't re-elected have been due to weak economies. And I'm not rooting for that.

(Laughter.)

So all things being equal, which they never really are, but all things being equal, a Trump's re-election is a distinct possibility. What does that mean for our international relations and, more specifically, Canada?

Well we don't know exactly. But like fire drills in an office tower we don't believe the fire's coming but if it does I sure want to know what the plans are and where the exit is.

Today, here in Canada a federal election is underway and much of it--much of a lot of things are appropriately being discussed, and of course most of its on domestic issues. Internationally, the important relationship with the U.S. while not ---not the smooth functionality of the Trudeau-Obama era, I think things are generally in better shape than they've been in over these last few years during the Trump government.

After navigating a renegotiated NAFTA and disposing of the inappropriate steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, the Canada-U.S. relationship is generally working well. Clearly, the issues with China and how Canada has found itself caught in between these two superpowers continue to persist, but overall, given the range of possibilities, the relationship is in about as good a position as one could hope for. Especially relative to relationships the U.S. has with other nations around the world right now. But in the event Donald Trump is re-elected that balance will be tested. So knowing this possibility what types of things can Canada do to prepare itself?

The reality--as I said at the beginning--there may be more questions than answers. But I thought a realistic assessment of some of the many questions Canada may face would be a constructive way to have this conversation today.

When I became Ambassador, I set out in a speech in the National Gallery in Ottawa, a broad set of objective of my tenure covering various subjects. Trade, energy and the environment, cultural diplomacy, international affairs, and of course, the functioning of our shared border. So let's talk trade for a minute.

NAFTA. A revised NAFTA. That deal's not done yet. It may not get passed if the administration doesn't adequately address the problems that exist in this agreement. So if it doesn't get passed, what is the path ahead? The range of possibilities ahead is wide, but the most challenging path is that the U.S. withdraws from the existing NAFTA.

I know people who say 'he can't do that.' Or, 'not to worry, we'll fall back on some previous trade agreement that we have or the W.T.O.' But I think if the President does that, the uncertainty that he will create will indeed hurt the Canadian economy. In addition, global tariffs are generally a bad course. And the impact is affecting decision-making by businesses all around the globe.

Self-proclaimed "Tariff Man", who said trade wars are easy to win, may indeed dial up trade wars and tariffs in the second term. Canadian businesses should game out these scenarios now and build in contingencies for both raising tariffs on non-Canadian goods but also potentially as well as new tariffs on Canadian goods. Or products like Uranium which was already debated on the basis of national security just a few months ago.

Finally, I think Canada has this really unique opportunity to go on offense. You see, Canada has several very large international trade agreements already in place: CETA with Europe, CPTPP trade with Asia. Canada may be better positioned on international trade given Trump's behaviors on trade and tariffs than the US.

I think Canada should also continue to expand talented immigration and expand skill sets especially as the US is closing its door. You should keep your immigration open in your own way--in your own way but we're in a battle. A battle of old economy...