An Example of The 'Useful Fiction' Writing Technique.

• Author: Cole, August

For all the innovation and breakthroughs available to 21st-century military commanders, the enduring nature of uncertainty persists. And it will continue to do so, compounded by the complexity, nuance, and blurring of the technologically driven domains of cyber and space--as well as within the cognitive dimension of operations and their effects.

The next generation of leaders will benefit from a new scale of data and technology, such as AI assistants and virtual and augmented reality, to help make sense of it. Yet, especially during combat operations, they may also have to lead in a world of constant unknowing and danger. The information that they rely on will be targeted, while they themselves will be hunted with both kinetic and digital weapons. The narrative that follows is a late 2030s snapshot of a critical moment for a NATO task force commander at the intersection of these trends.

Key Lessons:

* Commanders will need to trust, and teach, decision-making software in high-fidelity machine-speed training environments that simulate not just kinetic and physical dimensions of conflict, but information, cyber, and legal.

* While data management and processing may become increasingly automated, its interpretation will require human judgment at critical moments. Savvy commanders will retain skepticism about data quality.

* A suite of algorithms may soon understand a leader's strengths, weaknesses, and even intent better than any human can.

* Increased insight and transparency into adversaries will afford new opportunities for de-escalation and deterrence, but only if commanders are allowed to wield greater authority for nonkinetic effects that do not fit standard doctrine or regulations.

Critical Judgment

A flock-like gathering of drones spun and dove through smoky sky as the private military company's UAVs swarmed one of the NATO task force's expendable close-in ISR drones. To Major General Tim Rawlins, a U.S. Army cavalry officer who commanded NATO's Crisis Response Task Force-South (CRTFS), it looked like a murder of crows fending off a trespassing hawk.

Below the drones, he could pick out the individual mercenaries, as they took shelter from the hot midday sun in the relative cool of the shadows cast by the oil tanks. The exhausted contractors didn't even look up, being so used to the incessant back-and-forth of the unmanned dogfights overhead. They would know it was time to find real cover when an electric motor's change of pitch or a...