An Evaluation Tool for National‐Level Pandemic Influenza Planning

• Author: Matthew Boyce,Feng‐Jen Tsai,Shieh Chu‐Shin,Stephanie McKay,Rebecca Katz
• Published date: 01 June 2019
• Date: 01 June 2019
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/wmh3.297

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doi: 10.1002/wmh3.297

© 2019 Policy Studies Organization

An Evaluation Tool for National‐Level Pandemic

Influenza Planning

Stephanie McKay , Matthew Boyce, Shieh Chu‐Shin, Feng‐Jen Tsai, and

Rebecca Katz

The historical threat of pandemic influenza and the circulation of novel influenza viruses have led

countriesto strengthen their efforts in pandemicinfluenza preparedness planning. A cornerstone of these

efforts is the creation of a comprehensive national plan that addresses all of the capacities required to

prevent, detect, and respond to novel influenza outbreaks. In 2017 and 2018, the World Health

Organization issued updated guidance for national pandemic planning efforts, based on lessons learned

from the 2009 influenza A (H1N1)outbreak, the International Health Regulations (World Health

Organization, 2005a), and other developments in health security. We have created a tool to assess

national‐level plans based on these updated guidelines. This tool will allow for countries to identify both

strengths and weaknesses in their national plans, identify capacities and sectors that require

improvement, and to helpframe the updating ordrafting of plans in linewith the most updatedguidance.

KEY WORDS: health security, influenza, preparedness

Background

Pandemic influenza represents a significant threat to global health security, with

the potential to kill several hundred thousand to several millions of people once a virus

begins to circulate (Gates, 2017; Horby, 2018). The 1918 “Spanish influenza”pandemic

resulted in an estimated 50–100 million deaths and held major economic consequences

(Johnson & Mueller, 2002). Although pandemic influenza outbreaks have only

occurred three times in the past century—in 1957, 1968, and 2009—the twin

phenomena of urbanization and globalization have resulted in a situation in which

the world is more vulnerable than ever before (Alirol,Getaz,Stoll,Chappuis,&

Loutan, 2011; Webster & Govorkova, 2006; World Health Organization [WHO], 2005c).

The circulation of novel influenza viruses in animal populations that have a

risk of human pandemic potential—such as H7N9, H3N2, and H5N1—have put

influenza preparedness at the forefront of health security efforts. An effective and

early response to a novel influenza virus outbreak could contain an outbreak prior

to it escalating into a pandemic. Accordingly, several international efforts have

sought to mitigate the risks posed by a future influenza pandemic through

preparedness efforts. These include the International Health Regulations (WHO,

2005a), the Global Health Security Agenda, and the WHO preparedness standards

(WHO, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c).