America's heartland: can it survive?

• Author: Duncan, Marvin

THE GREAT PLAINS represents a unique physical, sociological, and economic region in North America. It runs from the Canadian Prairie Provinces on the north to Texas and New Mexico on the south. Along the western extremity of America's and Canada's heartland, states and provinces within this area share much in common.

The history of the Great Plains since settlement has been one of ongoing response to change, both to dynamics from within the region and to nationally based conditions. By many measures, the region has adapted very successfully to the changes required of it. It has become an agricultural production powerhouse, but has not been able to diversify its economy as much as the rest of the country has.

The region's economic performance since 1980 points out both strength and weakness. Metropolitan areas have enjoyed solid employment growth, creating jobs at a rate roughly equal the nation's average. Rural communities, meanwhile, have had much weaker growth. Very few rural communities in the region have economic growth that exceeds the national average. Those that have prospered appeared to be doing so by becoming dominant economic hubs for broader market regions. Thus, serious challenges about long-term economic sustainability confront policymakers concerned with the future of the rural Great Plains, especially in the face of the current drought affecting Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

On balance, the non-metropolitan areas of the Great Plains may be among the most rural of the nation. Distances are far, and population density is low. However, it would be a mistake to believe there are not important interdependencies with areas outside the Great Plains. Although there are few major cities within the Great Plains, many have close linkages. Among these are Minneapolis, Minn.; Omaha, Neb.; Kansas City, Kans.; Oklahoma City, Okla.; Dallas, Tex.; Albuquerque, N.M.; and Denver, Colo. Even more closely affiliated are Fargo, N.D.; Des Moines, Iowa; Sioux Falls, S.D.; Tulsa, Okla.; and Colorado's front range urban area from Pueblo to Fort Collins. These cities are the business, financial, distribution, health care, education, and cultural leaders with which Great Plains towns and cities affiliate and to which young people go to seek their future when they leave home.

The Great Plains region is economically diverse, though perhaps less so than other areas. The economy is bolstered by wheat, cattle, oil, coal mining, recreation, education, manufacturing, and service industries. Hence, the opportunities for development and employment vary greatly across the region. Employment possibilities in western Kansas or North Dakota are considerably more limited than in Oklahoma or along the Platte River in Nebraska. Consequently, a sustainable future means different outcomes for different parts of the Plains.

There is a tendency to think of all the Great Plains as singularly dependent upon agriculture. It is true that agriculture is of overriding importance across the region. Indeed, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas are among those states most dependent upon government farm programs. On occasion, government payments to farmers in those states represent more than 100% of the net farm income earned by those raising government program crops. Moreover, Texas, North Dakota, and Kansas (in that order) are the states with the largest number of acres retired from crop production into the Conservation Reserve Program, under which farmers are paid rental on the land to put it into soil conserving uses and retire it from crop production for 10 years.

However, not all counties in the Great Plains primarily are agriculturally dependent. Scattered across the region, 46% of the counties are predominantly nonagricultural, with manufacturing, mining, energy, and recreation among the major activities. Hence, the range of development strategies for the Great Plains states must be much broader than farm policy. They must focus on adding new value to the base industries of communities, as well as on developing those manufacturing and business activities not primarily dependent upon location for their success. Finally, a new and broader sense of community must be fostered and rural development viewed from the perspective of intercommunity cooperation to create the critical mass needed for self-sustaining growth.

It is more true than ever before that business activity can occur from locations selected by the owners, rather than those in close geographic proximity to firms' customers. This is especially so in manufacturing and service activities for which geographic location is not a fundamental economic determinant. Examples are the growth of high-value computer and computer peripheral manufacturing that has grown up along the front range of the Rocky Mountains. That, in turn, has attracted computer software and assorted support businesses as well.

The primary placement of these businesses is not as random as at first might be assumed. Four factors appear important in determining the development of high-technology and computer-based manufacturing along the front range of the Rockies. First and foremost, high-technology weapons manufacturing and sophisticated military installations in the region appear to have been a magnet. Second, the presence of universities provided trained...