Allied Interests.

• Author: Colby, Elbridge
• Position: Joe Biden's foreign policy

It is now widely accepted that the United States is in a great power competition with China, and that allies and partners are pivotal in this struggle. President Joe Biden ran on a platform emphasizing their elemental importance, and his administration has pledged to continue the Trump administration's tough line on China. The question that now confronts Washington is how to realize the potential advantages afforded by this network.

That won't be easy. It's one thing to be linked with such a far-flung group that in aggregate constitutes enormous power; it is quite another thing to convert that potential into meaningful international political influence. Indeed, the intensity of the burden-sharing controversies in recent years--including with some of Washington's strongest traditional allies like Germany--shows how difficult it is to turn the latent advantages of this network into teal leverage, let alone action. And Europe's Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with Beijing, concluded just before Biden's inauguration, is only the most prominent example that his election has not wiped away many of the real divergences among Washington and its allies.

The Biden administration appears to have a theory of the case for how to turn the potential of this network into real leverage and action. This is a "global, values-based" model of alliances and partnerships. Biden himself laid out this approach in his February speech at the State Department and then even more clearly and pointedly at the Munich Security Conference later that month. In the latter speech, Biden contended that "we are in the midst of a fundamental debate about the future and direction of our world... [between those who argue] that autocracy is the best way forward... and those who understand that democracy is essential." He invited "our fellow democracies ... to join us in this vital work," arguing that "our partnerships have endured and grown through the years because they are rooted in the richness of our shared democratic values." Emphasizing his "belief that--[with] every ounce of my being--that democracy will and must prevail," he contended that, "if we work together with our democratic partners with strength and confidence, I know that we'll meet every challenge and outpace every challenger." And Secretary of State Antony Blinken has repeatedly referred to the key divide in international politics as a competition between "techno-democracies and techno-authoritarians"--an ideological divide in which "techno-democracies" would be arrayed together on one side.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, has laid out the logic behind this approach in illuminating remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace in late January 2021 as well as in a number of articles he authored before returning to government, particularly a piece he coauthored in Foreign Policy in May 2020. Sullivan recognizes that Washington's relations with its confederates have to change, and he has a particular vision how. In his January remarks, Sullivan emphasized the importance of getting "in lockstep with democratic allies and partners" to generate "a chorus of voices that can drive the argument... to stand up for a certain set of principles." Following from this logic, Sullivan indicated that no relationship would be "more critical than the transatlantic alliance," and that "getting on the same page with the Europeans" would be the administration's focus. Doing so would create what, quoting Dean Ache-son, he called "situations of strength" relevant to the competition with Beijing.

Following this logic, the Biden administration's approach appears likely to focus on the world's democracies--particularly the leading ones of Europe--and, based on their (at least somewhat) shared values with the United States, to coordinate meaningful common action toward China. Biden himself has trumpeted the idea of a "Summit of Democracies," contending in February that this would "tally the nations of the world to defend democracy globally [and] to push back the authoritarianism that has advanced." Meanwhile, a slew of articles by Biden appointees and influential outside voices have argued for such an approach in a range of fields, from trade and technology to military posture and deployments. Put simply, the Biden team seems to be betting that democracies--wherever they are located--will align based on their shared values to stand up to the challenge of an authoritarian China.

The problem is that this approach will almost certainly disappoint and, if resolutely pursued, risks weakening U.S. links with many of the very countries that will be most key to confronting China--many of which are not democracies or are considered only "partly free" by institutions such as Freedom House. The basic flaw in this now ascendant U.S. approach is twofold. First, it mislocates the decisive arena of competition with China. The results of the competition with China will not primarily be determined by global political institutions and perceptions of our respective political systems but rather chiefly by the balance of hard economic and military power, especially in Asia. Second, it misidentifies the main reason countries will or will not collaborate with Washington vis-a-vis China. Exaggerating the role of "values" and ideology in international politics, it inherently downplays the salience of security and economic interests. This leads to an over-expectation of what democracies, especially in Europe, will do, while discounting the central importance of what other states, especially in Asia, need to do.

In practice, such an approach will at best lead to a strengthening of effort where Washington really doesn't need it that much, above all in Europe. Washington needs help primarily in Asia, and Europeans are unlikely to be willing--let alone able--to make a major difference there. More likely, this...