All Will Have Level 2 Autonomy by 2039.

• Position: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Few mobility technologies hold as much disruptive potential as autonomous vehicles. Despite having applications in logistics, robotaxis, and personally owned vehicles, AVs have remained on the cusp of transforming the automotive space. The commercialization of self-driving cars would be the biggest technological advancement of the auto industry.

A report by Lux Research, Boston, Mass., forecasts the adoption of AVs, including Level 2 ADAS (advanced driver-assistance systems), through self-driving Level 4 systems. "Level 4, or completely self-driving, vehicles aren't the only goal," explains lead author Christopher Robinson, senior analyst. "Hands-free Level 2 ADAS systems will grow rapidly in popularity across all regions and, by 2039, all vehicles will feature at least this level of autonomy. Level 3 autonomous systems will be introduced in 2021 and by 2040 will make up the largest portion of revenues from autonomous vehicles.

Although most AV developers focus on robotaxi operations, years of pilot programs are still required to validate both the business model and technology before robotaxis are adopted on a large scale. The market for personally owned vehicles is significantly larger, leading to a greater opportunity for Level 4 vehicles. Europe's autonomous vehicles will mostly be Level 2 and 3, while Asia will have more Level 4 AVs.

The autonomous vehicle landscape includes a complex web of technical, cost, and regulatory hurdles. Given the early stage of autonomous vehicle development, small changes today could accelerate or set back the...