Alaska's most precious resource gives back.

• Author: Christianson, Susan Stark
• Position: Oil industry - Industry Overview

Since 1978, Neal Fried has mapped the peaks and valleys of Alaska's economic landscape. As a labor economist for the Alaska Department of Labor, Fried charts economic trends and makes sense of such esoteric concepts as "multiplier effects" for the economics illiterate.

On his way to and from work each day, Fried passes Arco alaska, Inc.'s and British Exploration (Alaska), Inc.'s additions to the Anchorage skyline. And while working in his Anchorage office, Fried says he pays "a disproportionate amount of attention" to the industry those towers represent.

"The oil industry is a bellwether industry in Alaska," Fried said. "Anyone who watches the Alaska economy knows the oil industry has a huge impact because of the revenues that the State of Alaska receives. In Iowa, a person may wake up to hear hog and corn prices on the radio. In Seattle, it may be the stock prices of Boeing and Microsoft. In Alaska, it's oil prices you wake up to every morning."

Sunny Days Ahead

Although oil prices have dipped to the lowest in years, when it comes to jobs the forecast for Alaska's bellwether industry looks sunny.

Labor Commissioner Tom Cashen said this year is the first since 1994 that oil industry employment is expected to rise, thanks to new development of the Alpine, Badami, West Sak and Tarn fields. Cashen expects Alaska's economy to continue its growth through 1999, with oil and gas, visitor services, air cargo and health care services combining to add nearly 10,000 new jobs by the year 2000.

"While employment numbers among Alaska's oil producers have continued to decline-although much more slowly than in the past-employment numbers for oil-field service companies are at a 10-year high," said Fried. "That's one of the reasons we have seen such a turnaround. Two or three years ago, I don't think anyone would have predicted that oil industry employment would turn around with so much vigor."

This year, the job growth rate is expected to exceed 2 percent, driven largely by activity in the oil and gas sector of the state's economy. Engineering, accounting and architectural services should be in demand for the next two years. Also triggered by oil field development, are increasing demands for business services such as advertising and data processing firms, according to Department of Labor predictions.

The economic forecast assumes no dramatic change in oil prices or production levels. "If so," Alaska will be poised to enter the new millennium riding a 12-year growth wave," according to the Department of Labors May Trends Magazine.

"Alaska is reaping the benefits of an increasingly diversified economy," said Gov. Tony Knowles. "The result is more opportunities for continued growth and a positive future for Alaska's work force."

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